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A socio-psychological perspective on the perception and acceptance of risk

- Botha, Louise

  • Authors: Botha, Louise
  • Date: 2014-05-14
  • Subjects: Nuclear industry - Psychological aspects , Risk , Risk-taking (Psychology) , Industrial sociology
  • Type: Thesis
  • Identifier: uj:11078 , http://hdl.handle.net/10210/10651
  • Description: D.Litt. et Phil. (Sociology) , The Licensing Branch of the Atomic Energy Corporation of South Africa is responsible for setting safety standards as regards the nuclear energy industry. The present study forms part of an investigation, initiated by members of the Licensing Branch, into the impact and possible social risk of nuclear technology on society. The ultimate aim of the investigation, towards which this study intends to make a sound contribution, is the development of appropriate social risk criteria. Financial assistance by the Atomic Energy Corporation of South Africa is hereby acknowledged. Any views or conclusions are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the AEC. The financial assistance of the Human Sciences Research Council towards the costs of this research is hereby acknowledged. Opinions expressed or conclusions reached are those of the author and are not to be regarded as a reflection of the opinions and conclusions of the Human Sciences Research Council.
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An investigation into business continuity risks and related business continuity plan

- Nel, Izette

  • Authors: Nel, Izette
  • Date: 2012-06-07
  • Subjects: Risk , Risk management , Risk assessment , Crisis management , Business planning
  • Type: Mini-Dissertation
  • Identifier: uj:8715 , http://hdl.handle.net/10210/5067
  • Description: M.Comm. , To prevent the interruption of an organization’s daily operations in the event of a catastrophe, organizations must reconsider the importance of creating awareness and being prepared for the unexpected. The importance of business continuity for the survival of any organization during a crisis or disaster has become a prominent factor within the modern organization. Organizations must fully understand the importance of this factor and the impact it could have on the organization. Adequate and effective actions and procedures should be in place to address the organization’s business continuity risks. The study investigated the different business continuity risks that an organization faces in its internal and external environment and the concept and principles of an effective business continuity plan to address and manage these risks. This was done by way of a comprehensive literature study on business continuity factors as well as an empirical study of established business continuity practices at the audit clients of the four largest audit firms. The study found that there are various categories of business continuity risks that are applicable to the modern organization, but although the majority of organizations are aware of the risks that they are faced with not all organizations fully understand the impact of these risks on the organization and therefore not all organizations have effective and adequate business continuity plans in place to address and manage these risks. Organizations are not placing focus on the establishment of a business continuity culture within the organization that supports its business continuity philosophy and the success of its business continuity actions and procedures. It was evident that there is still room for improvement in the way organizations currently address their business continuity risks.
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Equity risk in a retirement investment portfolio

- Snyman, Cornelis Pieter Paul

Exchange rate risk and international equity portfolio diversification in emerging markets : a South African investor perspective

- Tchuinkam Djemo, Charles Raoul

  • Authors: Tchuinkam Djemo, Charles Raoul
  • Date: 2017
  • Subjects: Foreign exchange rates - South Africa , Risk
  • Language: English
  • Type: Masters (Thesis)
  • Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10210/282493 , uj:30433
  • Description: Abstract: This study empirically analyses exchange rate risk in a portfolio of ten stock indices in emerging markets from the viewpoint of a South African investor. The aim of this study is to understand the effect of exchange rate risk on expected return of such a portfolio and to find out whether this investment provides benefits for South African investors. To this end, we covered ten stock markets namely Malaysia, Philippines, South Africa, Brazil, China, Russia, India, Argentina, Mexico and Singapore. We make use of Value at Risk (VaR)-based GARCH model to model extreme currency deviation. We collect daily stock prices, daily spot and forward exchange rate of the South African rand against the currencies of the above mentioned countries for the period between 1 January 2005 and 31 October 2016. Firstly we filter each market returns with an Exponential Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) model to eliminate the presence of heterokedasticity and autocorrelation in the distribution of returns. We then fit the residual of the above GARCH model to the Generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) in order to account for extreme events. The estimation results of the EGARCH (1, 1) model show that all parameters are statistically significant for all stock markets including the leverage effect which arguably proves that bad news have higher impact on stock market volatility compared to good news. The parameters of the GPD in the lower tail are also estimated, the resulting shape parameters are significantly positive indicating that these stock markets are prone to price swing during periods of economic downturn. Lastly, we compute individual market risk measures using the EGARCH-EVT – based techniques and backtest them using the Kupiec method. Our VaR show that Russia has the highest market risk whereas Malaysia has the lowest VaR implies that it is the lowest market risk. The result of unconditional coverage test show that the likelihood ratio statistic fails to reject the null hypothesis of correct number of exceptions implies that our model is accurate. We find that for a South African investor to maximize his/her entire portfolio return, S/he needs to invest 9.85% in ALSI, 6.59% in SHANGHAI, 4.44% in BOVESPA, 7.46% in SENSEX, 2.28% in MICEX, 12.15% in MEXBOL, 3.9% in MERVAL, 31.4% in KLCI, 12.74% in SINGA and 9.19% in PSEI with the portfolio risk of 1.59; 0.62; 1.3; 5.76; 2.48; 1.45; 1.36; 0.24 and 2.21 respectively. We analyses the impact of exchange rate risk on the portfolio, the result show that Singaporean dollar, Russian rouble, Mexican peso and Indian rupee have positive impact on the portfolio return while the Argentine peso and Chinese yuan have negative impact on portfolio return therefore, South African investor in order to maximize his investment taking into account exchange rate risk have to put more weight in stock market with positive impact of exchange rate fluctuation on the portfolio. , M.Com. (Financial Economics)
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Opposing views of risk : balancing past experience with future expectations

- Van Eeden, Deon

  • Authors: Van Eeden, Deon
  • Date: 2012-08-01
  • Subjects: Risk , Risk management
  • Type: Mini-Dissertation
  • Identifier: uj:8911 , http://hdl.handle.net/10210/5382
  • Description: M.Phil. , Since the beginning of recorded history and probably before, man has been plagued by what the future holds for him. Initially man felt himself to be at the mercy of the gods, and his “fate” was in their hands. As man learned to overcome his superstition he started identifying patterns in his existence. He learnt from experience that certain events re-occurred, thereby allowing him to “predict” the future. This thesis will explore man’s historical effort to stabilise his existence by minimising the risk that he is exposed to. The researcher will then try to identify what hinders man from truly minimising the risk that he assumes or at least how he could improve his probability of success. The researcher will draw from the manufacturing, banking and academic environments as well as the researcher’s personal experience and observations. The thesis begins with a short history of probability and how it found its way into manufacturing as a tool to improve quality. Then risk management as a discipline designed to improve the reliability of organisations will be discussed and finally how it found its way into banking regulations to help improve the stability of the financial system. The researcher hopes to provide insight into the application of risk management and how human emotion and expectations limit the effectiveness of this tool. The researcher will propose a solution to the problem of balancing past experience with future expectation.
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Preparing for participation in international research : lessons for Africa

- Thomas, Peta

  • Authors: Thomas, Peta
  • Date: 2019
  • Subjects: Collaboration , Business research , Risk
  • Language: English
  • Type: Conference proceedings
  • Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10210/404626 , uj:33941 , Citation: Thomas, P. 2019. Preparing for participation in international research : lessons for Africa.
  • Description: Abstract: This paper explores the challenges that researchers new to being part of, or, managing a collaborative research team should consider when conducting business management research as part of a cooperative international research study composed of several research teams working in cohesion but isolated by geography. This provides a review of best practice to consider when undertaking a research project that is commenced simultaneously across borders by different researchers. This paper conceptually suggests aspects of planning collective research design that may be critically important to consider in gaining ethical, reliable and valid findings. As the world is interconnected, research that leads to producing comparative studies of findings drawn from two or more countries simultaneously, becomes valuable yet the risk management of this is infrequently dealt with in a consolidated chapter or section in research methodology textbooks.
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Risk allocation in public private partnership infrastructure projects

- Zittlau, Werner Gustav

  • Authors: Zittlau, Werner Gustav
  • Date: 2011-12-06
  • Subjects: Partnership , Infrastructure (Economics) , Risk
  • Type: Thesis
  • Identifier: http://ujcontent.uj.ac.za8080/10210/371507 , uj:1824 , http://hdl.handle.net/10210/4185
  • Description: M.Comm. , The creation of infrastructure services and products has traditionally been the responsibility of the government, but this has changed with the private sector becoming more involved through public private partnerships. This change has been driven by the need for better value for money to the end user and the private sector's ability to achieve higher efficiencies. The extent to which value for money will be achieved will be largely dependent on the correct risk allocation between the parties involved. An optimum risk allocation will ensure that the risk. Pricing is kept to a minimum and thus achieve a cost effective product or service.
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Risk preferences and predictions about others: no association with 2D:4D ratio

- De Miranda, Katharina Lima, Neyse, Levent, Schmidt, Ulrich

  • Authors: De Miranda, Katharina Lima , Neyse, Levent , Schmidt, Ulrich
  • Date: 2018
  • Subjects: Risk , Decision making , Prenatal testosterone
  • Language: English
  • Type: Article
  • Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10210/278385 , uj:29872 , Citation: Lima de Miranda K, Neyse L and Schmidt U (2018) Risk Preferences and Predictions about Others: No Association with 2D:4D Ratio. Front. Behav. Neurosci. 12:9. doi: 10.3389/fnbeh.2018.00009
  • Description: Abstract: Prenatal androgen exposure affects the brain development of the fetus which may facilitate certain behaviors and decision patterns in the later life. The ratio between the lengths of second and the fourth fingers (2D:4D) is a negative biomarker of the ratio between prenatal androgen and estrogen exposure and men typically have lower ratios than women. In line with the typical findings suggesting that women are more risk averse than men, several studies have also shown negative relationships between 2D:4D and risk taking although the evidence is not conclusive. Previous studies have also reported that both men and women believe women are more risk averse than men. In the current study, we re-test the relationship between 2D:4D and risk preferences in a German student sample and also investigate whether the 2D:4D ratio is associated with people’s perceptions about others’ risk preferences. Following an incentivized risk elicitation task, we asked all participants their predictions about (i) others’ responses (without sex specification), (ii) men’s responses, and (iii) women’s responses; then measured their 2D:4D ratios. In line with the previous findings, female participants in our sample were more risk averse. While both men and women underestimated other participants’ (non sex-specific) and women’s risky decisions on average, their predictions about men were accurate. We also found evidence for the false consensus effect, as risky choices are positively correlated with predictions about other participants’ risky choices. The 2D:4D ratio was not directly associated either with risk preferences or the predictions of other participants’ choices. An unexpected finding was that women with mid-range levels of 2D:4D estimated significantly larger sex differences in participants’ decisions. This finding needs further testing in future studies.
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The asset allocation decision in managing the portfolios of small individual investors

- Du Bruyn, Gabriël Reinhold

The impact of the global financial crisis on the South African Property market

- Lalla, Vishana

  • Authors: Lalla, Vishana
  • Date: 2020
  • Subjects: Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 , Real estate investment , Risk , Housing - Prices - South Africa
  • Language: English
  • Type: Masters (Thesis)
  • Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10210/456830 , uj:40483
  • Description: Abstract: This study examines South African house prices with a view to determining whether the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) had an effect on those prices. The first part of this study discusses alternative investments and real estate as an investment and the risks that come with it. The study provides a timeline of events that occurred during the crisis period that resulted in the global financial crisis. The factors that caused the crisis are analysed to assess whether, had the 2007 – 2009 global financial crisis not occurred, the South African housing market would have prospered. In order to do this, historical house prices will need to be analysed and, with the assistance of forecasting models, we will see the difference in house prices. The ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) model was used to forecast house prices. The results show that house prices were affected however the extent was not as severe as what the United States had experienced. Further analysis is done on how certain macroeconomic variables impacted house prices during that period. This study shows that the macroeconomic variables namely, prime interest rate, rand-dollar exchange rate, South Africa Household Debt to Disposable Income of Households (SABTHDIQ) Index, South Africa Nominal Household Disposable Income SA (SAGNDISA) Index have a long run equilibrium relationship. Prime interest rate and rand-dollar exchange rate have a negative impact on house prices. As disposable income increases, the demand for housing increases and results in an increase in house prices. The opposite is described for household debt to income as debt increases the demand for housing decreases and therefore a drop in house prices is expected. These relationships were evident during the GFC period for the prime interest rate and the randdollar exchange rate however disposable income increased and therefore the household debt to disposable income dropped due to the increase in disposable income. The results show that South Africa was affected by the GFC however not to the extent that a recession was triggered. The South African housing market was affected however due to the implementation of the National Credit Act in June 2007 and the countries fiscal policy at the time the housing market and the economy was sheltered from the full extent of the GFC. Previous studies have indicated similar results however in terms of the South African housing market during that time literature is limited and this study addresses that gap in literature. Further research can be done by adding in more macroeconomic variables to the study to give a broader understanding of the topic. , M.Com. (Finance)
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The relation between low self-esteem and depressive mood in a nonclinical sample : the role of gender and negative life events

- Makhubela, Malose

  • Authors: Makhubela, Malose
  • Date: 2019
  • Subjects: Self-esteem , Depressive mood , Risk
  • Language: English
  • Type: Article
  • Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10210/405840 , uj:34096 , Citation: Makhubela, M. 2019. The relation between low self-esteem and depressive mood in a nonclinical sample : the role of gender and negative life events.
  • Description: Abstract: The suggestion that low self-esteem is both a protective and a risk factor for depression is well document. However, this association is not consistently observed by empirical research. The current study investigated the main and interactive effects of low self-esteem and stressful life events on depressive mood in a sample of university students (N = 862, females = 72%, Blacks = 67%, mean age = 21.70, SD = 13.51). The students completed the Hopkins Symptom Checklist, Rosenberg Self-Esteem scale and Perceived stress scale. Data were analysed using structural equation modeling (SEM), with stressful life events scores as a mediator and gender as a moderator of the relation between low self-esteem and depression. Results indicate that low self-esteem significantly predicted depression, and that stressful life events partially mediated that relationship. Support emerged for the vulnerability effects of low self-esteem on depression and they held across gender groups. Low self-esteem may be a significant indicator of individuals who are at risk for developing depressive mood.
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The relationship between firm size and performance

- Mazhinduka, Tinodiwanashe Adrian

  • Authors: Mazhinduka, Tinodiwanashe Adrian
  • Date: 2015
  • Subjects: Business enterprises - Size , Performance - Management , Risk , Financial leverage , Corporate governance
  • Language: English
  • Type: Masters (Thesis)
  • Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10210/54656 , uj:16244
  • Description: Abstract: The impact of firm size on performance of a firm has been widely debated. There is the view that large firms are able to outperform smaller competitors because of economies of scale. Harsh economic conditions have, however, led to a number of large firms collapsing. Advocates of small firms have noted that the knowledge of niche markets and unique offerings have allowed small firms to remain competitive. This study investigates whether there exists a relationship between firm size and return on assets. To supplement the size variable, the study also considered control variables associated with firm size to determine how they influence the relationship between firm size and return on assets. The study considered a sample of firms in the Industrial Goods and Services sector listed on the JSE to examine the nature of the relationship between firm size and performance, during the period 2004 to 2013. Market capitalisation was used as measure for firm size and return on assets as a measure of firm performance. The study data was analysed by means of a comparative analysis applying descriptive statistics, correlation analysis and a regression analysis. The findings from the correlation and regression analyses indicate that firm size has no influence on firm performance when the combined sample was investigated. However, the results indicate that for small listed firms, firm size has a moderate positive influence on firm performance. For large firms, firm size has no influence on firm performance. The results of the study will be useful for management to focus their efforts on significant variables that influence return on assets. , M.Com. (Financial Management)
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The role of factory facilities on safety risk management in the working conditions in sewing co-operatives

- Mkwanazi, Michael Sizwe, Mbohwa, Charles

‘I will not share my partner’ : the ‘care of the self’ in an HIV prevention campaign

- Segopolo, Irene M., Tomaselli, Keyan G.

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