Schedule risk analysis of railway projects using monte-carlo simulation
- Authors: Mabeba, Motlatso
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Risk management , Railroads - Management , Monte Carlo method
- Language: English
- Type: Masters (Thesis)
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10210/286098 , uj:30951
- Description: M.Ing. (Engineering Management) , Abstract: Railways have been used throughout history for the transportation of goods. Even though the inception of rail improved civilization, due to its inefficiencies, road transport is dominating the freight and logistics industry. Company A, which has the largest market share in rail has embarked on projects in an attempt to improve rail efficiencies by moving more volumes of freight timeously. Most of the projects of Company A have failed largely due to the poor planning of the projects in the feasibility stages. Most of the planning schedules are overoptimistic and thus unreliable. The scope of this study is to investigate the way in which planning schedules of Company A are developed by undertaking a schedule risk analysis and using Monte Carlo simulation to validate the schedule. If projects of Company A can be planned better, using schedule risk analysis, projects can become more successful in terms of delivering projects on time and then execute the projects on time.
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- Authors: Mabeba, Motlatso
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Risk management , Railroads - Management , Monte Carlo method
- Language: English
- Type: Masters (Thesis)
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10210/286098 , uj:30951
- Description: M.Ing. (Engineering Management) , Abstract: Railways have been used throughout history for the transportation of goods. Even though the inception of rail improved civilization, due to its inefficiencies, road transport is dominating the freight and logistics industry. Company A, which has the largest market share in rail has embarked on projects in an attempt to improve rail efficiencies by moving more volumes of freight timeously. Most of the projects of Company A have failed largely due to the poor planning of the projects in the feasibility stages. Most of the planning schedules are overoptimistic and thus unreliable. The scope of this study is to investigate the way in which planning schedules of Company A are developed by undertaking a schedule risk analysis and using Monte Carlo simulation to validate the schedule. If projects of Company A can be planned better, using schedule risk analysis, projects can become more successful in terms of delivering projects on time and then execute the projects on time.
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The causes of project failure in railway infrastructure projects
- Authors: Mafokosi, K.R.M.
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Railroads - Management , Railroads - Maintenance and repair , Project management , Transnet (Firm : South Africa)
- Language: English
- Type: M.Phil. (Engineering Management)
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10210/393679 , uj:32581
- Description: Abstract : Transnet is the owner of 80% of Africa’s rail networks. The company embarks on mega projects to develop the railway infrastructure. Research recorded that 55% of major rail infrastructure projects at Transnet Freight Rail failed for a consecutive five years, between 2005 and 2011. There are no records of causes of project failure. Failure in project delivery, results in failure to meet customer demands, impacting on the South African economy. The current research used various data collection methods to develop a database to obtain an in-depth understanding of the factors causing railway infrastructure project failures. Collected data include literature, interview and archival data. The data were used to answer the research questions and achieve the research objectives, identifying the factors contributing to railway infrastructure project failures and the management approach that can be applied to mitigate the factors. Typical causes of project failure in the literature and the case study, involve scope, resources, cost, schedule, communication, management support, project planning, lessons learnt, corruption, a lack of commitment and procurement. The comparison of the causes of project failure in the case study, literature, Gautrain rapid rail and London Jubilee line extension projects indicated that there are differences and similarities in factors contributing to project failure in railway infrastructure projects. Therefore, the findings cannot be generalized across all railway infrastructure projects. The management approaches, conventional in the literature and the case study are positioned in project scope management, resource management, schedule management, communication management, stakeholder management, cost management, integration management, quality management, risk management and project procurement management. The improvement of project stakeholder management and communication management is recommended due to their influence on project planning and the management of scope, schedule, quality, risk, cost, procurement and resources. A challenge indicates limited publications on South African Railway projects which emphasises the knowledge disparity on the subject. , M.Ing. (Engineering Management)
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- Authors: Mafokosi, K.R.M.
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Railroads - Management , Railroads - Maintenance and repair , Project management , Transnet (Firm : South Africa)
- Language: English
- Type: M.Phil. (Engineering Management)
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10210/393679 , uj:32581
- Description: Abstract : Transnet is the owner of 80% of Africa’s rail networks. The company embarks on mega projects to develop the railway infrastructure. Research recorded that 55% of major rail infrastructure projects at Transnet Freight Rail failed for a consecutive five years, between 2005 and 2011. There are no records of causes of project failure. Failure in project delivery, results in failure to meet customer demands, impacting on the South African economy. The current research used various data collection methods to develop a database to obtain an in-depth understanding of the factors causing railway infrastructure project failures. Collected data include literature, interview and archival data. The data were used to answer the research questions and achieve the research objectives, identifying the factors contributing to railway infrastructure project failures and the management approach that can be applied to mitigate the factors. Typical causes of project failure in the literature and the case study, involve scope, resources, cost, schedule, communication, management support, project planning, lessons learnt, corruption, a lack of commitment and procurement. The comparison of the causes of project failure in the case study, literature, Gautrain rapid rail and London Jubilee line extension projects indicated that there are differences and similarities in factors contributing to project failure in railway infrastructure projects. Therefore, the findings cannot be generalized across all railway infrastructure projects. The management approaches, conventional in the literature and the case study are positioned in project scope management, resource management, schedule management, communication management, stakeholder management, cost management, integration management, quality management, risk management and project procurement management. The improvement of project stakeholder management and communication management is recommended due to their influence on project planning and the management of scope, schedule, quality, risk, cost, procurement and resources. A challenge indicates limited publications on South African Railway projects which emphasises the knowledge disparity on the subject. , M.Ing. (Engineering Management)
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Optimisation of mechanised maintenance management of railway track infrastructure
- Authors: Zaayman, Leon
- Date: 2017
- Subjects: Railroad tracks - Maintenance and repair , Railroads - Management , Reliability (Engineering) , Railroad engineering
- Language: English
- Type: Doctoral (Thesis)
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10210/285908 , uj:30928
- Description: Abstract: Railway track infrastructure is a complex system consisting of various subsystems which require incremental maintenance from all engineering disciplines; all of whom are competing for the limited time and number of available maintenance windows. The constant demand for higher traffic volumes, increased train speeds and heavier axle loadings all result in an exponential increase in maintenance requirements but the time available for maintenance is as a result even further reduced. This requires a more scientific lifecycle approach to infrastructure maintenance management. It also requires increased performance from mechanised construction, maintenance and renewal machines to keep the infrastructure reliable, available, maintainable, affordable and safe within the short windows. The objectives of this thesis are to address the optimisation of infrastructure maintenance management and to provide a model with selection criteria for maintenance machinery and their features for the prevailing circumstances. , D.Phil. (Engineering Management)
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- Authors: Zaayman, Leon
- Date: 2017
- Subjects: Railroad tracks - Maintenance and repair , Railroads - Management , Reliability (Engineering) , Railroad engineering
- Language: English
- Type: Doctoral (Thesis)
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10210/285908 , uj:30928
- Description: Abstract: Railway track infrastructure is a complex system consisting of various subsystems which require incremental maintenance from all engineering disciplines; all of whom are competing for the limited time and number of available maintenance windows. The constant demand for higher traffic volumes, increased train speeds and heavier axle loadings all result in an exponential increase in maintenance requirements but the time available for maintenance is as a result even further reduced. This requires a more scientific lifecycle approach to infrastructure maintenance management. It also requires increased performance from mechanised construction, maintenance and renewal machines to keep the infrastructure reliable, available, maintainable, affordable and safe within the short windows. The objectives of this thesis are to address the optimisation of infrastructure maintenance management and to provide a model with selection criteria for maintenance machinery and their features for the prevailing circumstances. , D.Phil. (Engineering Management)
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Application of integrated logistics support : a South African railway case study
- Authors: Makhuvele, A.
- Date: 2016
- Subjects: Transnet (Firm : South Africa) , Logistics - Contracting out , Business logistics , Railroads - Management
- Language: English
- Type: Masters (Thesis)
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10210/263044 , uj:27800
- Description: M.Phil. (Engineering Management) , Abstract: Blanchard (1998) considers Integrated Logistic Support (ILS) as a management tool providing controls ensuring that the product or the system meets its anticipated performance requirements and receive adequate technical and operational support throughout its life cycle. Organisations globally conduct gigantic projects in various sectors such as manufacturing, services and merchandising. An increase in project size, project cost, project complexity, advanced technology and strategic importance, enforces organisations to apply ILS practice (Jones, 2006). The practice of ILS ensures that the benefits realised from the system and the system’s life-cycle support is adequately and cost-effectively managed (Jones, 2006). Transnet conducts a programme of acquiring 1 064 locomotives to improve operational efficiencies and to attract new business. The purpose of this research is to assess the effectiveness of ILS elements in Transnet, supporting the locomotive life-cycle. The research comprises a problem statement, literature review, research methodology, data analysis, and a conclusion. The literature is developed and tested at Transnet through survey techniques. Questionnaires are sent to 110 potential respondents and 95 participants responded. The data is analysed using weighted average per question whereby the targeted average score per question is ≥80%. Responses from respondents indicate that most ILS elements are effective though certain elements still need improvements. Elements that are ineffective are manpower adequacy level and inventory management systems. Chapter 5 presents a conclusion and recommendations to close gaps on elements that did not meet the targeted score.
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- Authors: Makhuvele, A.
- Date: 2016
- Subjects: Transnet (Firm : South Africa) , Logistics - Contracting out , Business logistics , Railroads - Management
- Language: English
- Type: Masters (Thesis)
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10210/263044 , uj:27800
- Description: M.Phil. (Engineering Management) , Abstract: Blanchard (1998) considers Integrated Logistic Support (ILS) as a management tool providing controls ensuring that the product or the system meets its anticipated performance requirements and receive adequate technical and operational support throughout its life cycle. Organisations globally conduct gigantic projects in various sectors such as manufacturing, services and merchandising. An increase in project size, project cost, project complexity, advanced technology and strategic importance, enforces organisations to apply ILS practice (Jones, 2006). The practice of ILS ensures that the benefits realised from the system and the system’s life-cycle support is adequately and cost-effectively managed (Jones, 2006). Transnet conducts a programme of acquiring 1 064 locomotives to improve operational efficiencies and to attract new business. The purpose of this research is to assess the effectiveness of ILS elements in Transnet, supporting the locomotive life-cycle. The research comprises a problem statement, literature review, research methodology, data analysis, and a conclusion. The literature is developed and tested at Transnet through survey techniques. Questionnaires are sent to 110 potential respondents and 95 participants responded. The data is analysed using weighted average per question whereby the targeted average score per question is ≥80%. Responses from respondents indicate that most ILS elements are effective though certain elements still need improvements. Elements that are ineffective are manpower adequacy level and inventory management systems. Chapter 5 presents a conclusion and recommendations to close gaps on elements that did not meet the targeted score.
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'n Ontleding van die Suid-Afrikaanse vervoerdienste se spoortaklyne in die Republiek van Suid-Afrika
- Authors: Meyer, Jacobus Francois
- Date: 2014-11-20
- Subjects: Railroad tracks , Railroads - Management
- Type: Thesis
- Identifier: uj:13071 , http://hdl.handle.net/10210/12950
- Description: D.Com. (Transport Economics) , Please refer to full text to view abstract
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'n Ontleding van die Suid-Afrikaanse vervoerdienste se spoortaklyne in die Republiek van Suid-Afrika
- Authors: Meyer, Jacobus Francois
- Date: 2014-11-20
- Subjects: Railroad tracks , Railroads - Management
- Type: Thesis
- Identifier: uj:13071 , http://hdl.handle.net/10210/12950
- Description: D.Com. (Transport Economics) , Please refer to full text to view abstract
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Operational risk analysis for the management of railway infrastructure maintenance
- Authors: Dhlamini, Phumzile
- Date: 2012-06-04
- Subjects: Railroad engineering , Railroads - Management , Risk management , Railroads - Maintenance and repair
- Type: Mini-Dissertation
- Identifier: uj:2307 , http://hdl.handle.net/10210/4766
- Description: M. Ing. , This dissertation proposes a methodology for the analysis of the operational risks that are caused by railway infrastructure component failure. The objective of this methodology is to assist the engineers that manage railway infrastructure maintenance to forecast the following: • the frequency of operational risk events that are caused by railway infrastructure failure; • the cost of rehabilitating railway infrastructure after an operational risk event that was caused by railway infrastructure failure; and • the impact that railway infrastructure maintenance strategies have on the frequency and cost of operational risk events that are caused by railway infrastructure failure. A brief literature study of operational risk analysis is presented. The proposed operational risk analysis methodology involves the identification of the operational risks that are caused by railway infrastructure failure and causal modelling using Bayesian network causal models. The proposed operational risk methodology is applied in a case study concerning a railway company (called African Railways Ltd as a pseudonym for the sake of confidentiality). The train derailments that are caused by infrastructure component failure in a particular region are analysed in the case study. The case study presents historical data and the results of a questionnaire that was used during face-to-face individual interviews with three track maintenance experts. The frequency of train derailments, the cost of rehabilitating railway infrastructure after train derailments and the impact of railway infrastructure maintenance on these two issues are forecasted. The case study concludes with a comparison of the forecasted and actual frequency of train derailments and cost of rehabilitating the railway infrastructure after a train derailment.
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- Authors: Dhlamini, Phumzile
- Date: 2012-06-04
- Subjects: Railroad engineering , Railroads - Management , Risk management , Railroads - Maintenance and repair
- Type: Mini-Dissertation
- Identifier: uj:2307 , http://hdl.handle.net/10210/4766
- Description: M. Ing. , This dissertation proposes a methodology for the analysis of the operational risks that are caused by railway infrastructure component failure. The objective of this methodology is to assist the engineers that manage railway infrastructure maintenance to forecast the following: • the frequency of operational risk events that are caused by railway infrastructure failure; • the cost of rehabilitating railway infrastructure after an operational risk event that was caused by railway infrastructure failure; and • the impact that railway infrastructure maintenance strategies have on the frequency and cost of operational risk events that are caused by railway infrastructure failure. A brief literature study of operational risk analysis is presented. The proposed operational risk analysis methodology involves the identification of the operational risks that are caused by railway infrastructure failure and causal modelling using Bayesian network causal models. The proposed operational risk methodology is applied in a case study concerning a railway company (called African Railways Ltd as a pseudonym for the sake of confidentiality). The train derailments that are caused by infrastructure component failure in a particular region are analysed in the case study. The case study presents historical data and the results of a questionnaire that was used during face-to-face individual interviews with three track maintenance experts. The frequency of train derailments, the cost of rehabilitating railway infrastructure after train derailments and the impact of railway infrastructure maintenance on these two issues are forecasted. The case study concludes with a comparison of the forecasted and actual frequency of train derailments and cost of rehabilitating the railway infrastructure after a train derailment.
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