A mathematical model to guide the re-opening of economies during the COVID-19 pandemic
- Authors: Habib, Noorbhai
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Coronavirus , Lockdown , Model
- Language: English
- Type: Article
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10210/432549 , uj:37367 , Habib, N. 2020: A mathematical model to guide the re-opening of economies during the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Description: Abstract: , Despite rigorous global containment and quarantine efforts, the incidence of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), also known as COVID-19, continues to surge, with more than 12 million laboratory-confirmed cases and over 500,000 deaths worldwide (as of 11 July 2020). Aside from the continued surge in cases and the imperatives of public health concern and saving lives, economic devastation is also mounting with a global depression now seeming inevitable. There is limited attention directed towards people who have recovered from the virus and whether this metric can be useful in guiding when the economy can be re-opened. In this paper, a simpler model is presented in order to guide various countries on the (possible) reopening of the economy (or re-opening in stages/phases) alongside risk categories and ratios. Factors that need to be considered when applying the model include the healthcare capacity in terms of the number of hospitals, beds and healthcare workers that are available to capacitate this virus. In addition, population size, physical distancing measures, socio-economic disparities, lockdown regulations in each country, and more importantly the amount and accuracy of testing conducted, is also imperative to consider. Decisions adopted by leaders around the world have the most difficult decision to make (yet), and have to weigh up on what really matters; health or wealth. It is suggested that this model be applied in a number of states/counties and countries in order to gauge the risk of their location being re-opened, by observing their total number of recoveries in proximity to total number of cases.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Habib, Noorbhai
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Coronavirus , Lockdown , Model
- Language: English
- Type: Article
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10210/432549 , uj:37367 , Habib, N. 2020: A mathematical model to guide the re-opening of economies during the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Description: Abstract: , Despite rigorous global containment and quarantine efforts, the incidence of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), also known as COVID-19, continues to surge, with more than 12 million laboratory-confirmed cases and over 500,000 deaths worldwide (as of 11 July 2020). Aside from the continued surge in cases and the imperatives of public health concern and saving lives, economic devastation is also mounting with a global depression now seeming inevitable. There is limited attention directed towards people who have recovered from the virus and whether this metric can be useful in guiding when the economy can be re-opened. In this paper, a simpler model is presented in order to guide various countries on the (possible) reopening of the economy (or re-opening in stages/phases) alongside risk categories and ratios. Factors that need to be considered when applying the model include the healthcare capacity in terms of the number of hospitals, beds and healthcare workers that are available to capacitate this virus. In addition, population size, physical distancing measures, socio-economic disparities, lockdown regulations in each country, and more importantly the amount and accuracy of testing conducted, is also imperative to consider. Decisions adopted by leaders around the world have the most difficult decision to make (yet), and have to weigh up on what really matters; health or wealth. It is suggested that this model be applied in a number of states/counties and countries in order to gauge the risk of their location being re-opened, by observing their total number of recoveries in proximity to total number of cases.
- Full Text:
A health and safety model for occupational exposure to radiofrequency fields and static magnetic fields from 1.5 and 3 T MRI scanners
- Rathebe, Phoka, Weyers, C., Raphela, F.
- Authors: Rathebe, Phoka , Weyers, C. , Raphela, F.
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Health and safety , Occupational exposure , Model
- Language: English
- Type: Article
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10210/426304 , uj:36561 , Rathebe, P., Weyers, C., Raphela, F.: A health and safety model for occupational exposure to radiofrequency fields and static magnetic fields from 1.5 and 3 T MRI scanners.
- Description: Abstract: The exposure of MRI staff to SMFs and RF fields in the MRI units happen as a result of their induced movement in the MRI room during patients’ examination. Exposure to SMFs among health care workers has been associated with vertigo, nausea, increased heart rate, hypothermia and metallic taste in the mouth. The only known adverse effects associated with RF fields’ exposure include induced tissue heating, and the scientific arguments regarding non-thermal effects are inconclusive. The emission of MRI-related electromagnetic fields and exposure of workers to RF energy and SMFs can be reduced through implementation of reasonably practicable control measures. This study attempts to recommend the hierarchy of controls that can be implemented in the MRI units to reduce emissions and exposure of MRI staff to RF energy and SMFs. The controls are recommended based on exposure assessment conducted to quantify the exposure levels and self-reported priori-related and unrelated health consequences. In the MRI units, elimination is an impractical measure, hence, the implementation of engineering and administrative control measures as well as the utilisation of personal protective equipment (PPE) are recommended to mitigate exposure. Engineering controls include modification of MRI scanners to reduce emissions while administration controls include the design of work schedules and processes to be adaptive by MRI staff. PPE is recommended as a last resort and include protective equipment that are fit to reduce exposure arriving to workers. In South Africa, there is no legislation to assist in enforcing exposure limits and as a result, exposure levels are uncontrolled. The model of this kind could assist in reducing exposure levels in the MRI units and substantially reduce exposure-related effects amongst workers.
- Full Text:
- Authors: Rathebe, Phoka , Weyers, C. , Raphela, F.
- Date: 2020
- Subjects: Health and safety , Occupational exposure , Model
- Language: English
- Type: Article
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10210/426304 , uj:36561 , Rathebe, P., Weyers, C., Raphela, F.: A health and safety model for occupational exposure to radiofrequency fields and static magnetic fields from 1.5 and 3 T MRI scanners.
- Description: Abstract: The exposure of MRI staff to SMFs and RF fields in the MRI units happen as a result of their induced movement in the MRI room during patients’ examination. Exposure to SMFs among health care workers has been associated with vertigo, nausea, increased heart rate, hypothermia and metallic taste in the mouth. The only known adverse effects associated with RF fields’ exposure include induced tissue heating, and the scientific arguments regarding non-thermal effects are inconclusive. The emission of MRI-related electromagnetic fields and exposure of workers to RF energy and SMFs can be reduced through implementation of reasonably practicable control measures. This study attempts to recommend the hierarchy of controls that can be implemented in the MRI units to reduce emissions and exposure of MRI staff to RF energy and SMFs. The controls are recommended based on exposure assessment conducted to quantify the exposure levels and self-reported priori-related and unrelated health consequences. In the MRI units, elimination is an impractical measure, hence, the implementation of engineering and administrative control measures as well as the utilisation of personal protective equipment (PPE) are recommended to mitigate exposure. Engineering controls include modification of MRI scanners to reduce emissions while administration controls include the design of work schedules and processes to be adaptive by MRI staff. PPE is recommended as a last resort and include protective equipment that are fit to reduce exposure arriving to workers. In South Africa, there is no legislation to assist in enforcing exposure limits and as a result, exposure levels are uncontrolled. The model of this kind could assist in reducing exposure levels in the MRI units and substantially reduce exposure-related effects amongst workers.
- Full Text:
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