The effects of bank regulation and supervision on bank performance and risk taking in South Africa
- Authors: Taranhike, Edmore
- Date: 2017
- Subjects: Banks and banking - South Africa , Banks and banking - Risk management - South Africa , Basel II (2004 June 26)
- Language: English
- Type: Masters (Thesis)
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10210/271746 , uj:28908
- Description: M.Com. (Finance) , Abstract: The effects of bank regulation and supervision on bank performance and risk taking have recently been subject to a number of empirical studies. However, these studies have largely produced conflicting and inconclusive results and very few such studies have been conducted in South Africa. Although aspects of bank regulation and supervision are quite broad, scholars have recently focused on the four aspects based on the three pillars of the Basel II Accord, namely, capital requirements, official supervision, private sector monitoring of banks and restrictions on banking activities. A quantitative approach was adopted in this study to establish the nature and significance of the relationships between aspects of bank regulation and supervision variables and bank performance and risk taking variables. Panel data regression techniques were applied to the variables obtained from historic data for the period 1999 to 2010. The main regression results indicated that bank regulation and supervision do not have statistically significant effects on bank performance and risk taking in South Africa when all fifteen banks in the sample are analysed collectively. When banks are grouped and analysed separately, the results indicated that for large banks only capital requirements regulation improves bank performance by enhancing net interest margins and lowering operating costs but other aspects do not affect bank performance. Only restrictions on banking activities and official supervisory power reduce credit risk taking for large banks. For medium-sized banks, only capital requirements regulation improves cost efficiency while restrictions on bank activities and official supervisory powers increase operating costs. Capital requirements regulation reduces credit risk taking and overall bank risk taking; however, restrictions on banking activities and official supervisory power increase credit risk taking for medium banks although they do not affect overall bank risk taking. The performance of small banks is negatively affected by restrictions on banking activities. Restrictions on banking activities and official supervisory power reduce credit risk taking for small banks but capital requirements regulation increases credit risk taking. This study concludes that bank regulation and supervision do not have uniform effects across all bank sizes in South Africa. Therefore policies should be designed to target different categories of bank sizes for them to be more effective in achieving their desired outcomes.
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- Authors: Taranhike, Edmore
- Date: 2017
- Subjects: Banks and banking - South Africa , Banks and banking - Risk management - South Africa , Basel II (2004 June 26)
- Language: English
- Type: Masters (Thesis)
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10210/271746 , uj:28908
- Description: M.Com. (Finance) , Abstract: The effects of bank regulation and supervision on bank performance and risk taking have recently been subject to a number of empirical studies. However, these studies have largely produced conflicting and inconclusive results and very few such studies have been conducted in South Africa. Although aspects of bank regulation and supervision are quite broad, scholars have recently focused on the four aspects based on the three pillars of the Basel II Accord, namely, capital requirements, official supervision, private sector monitoring of banks and restrictions on banking activities. A quantitative approach was adopted in this study to establish the nature and significance of the relationships between aspects of bank regulation and supervision variables and bank performance and risk taking variables. Panel data regression techniques were applied to the variables obtained from historic data for the period 1999 to 2010. The main regression results indicated that bank regulation and supervision do not have statistically significant effects on bank performance and risk taking in South Africa when all fifteen banks in the sample are analysed collectively. When banks are grouped and analysed separately, the results indicated that for large banks only capital requirements regulation improves bank performance by enhancing net interest margins and lowering operating costs but other aspects do not affect bank performance. Only restrictions on banking activities and official supervisory power reduce credit risk taking for large banks. For medium-sized banks, only capital requirements regulation improves cost efficiency while restrictions on bank activities and official supervisory powers increase operating costs. Capital requirements regulation reduces credit risk taking and overall bank risk taking; however, restrictions on banking activities and official supervisory power increase credit risk taking for medium banks although they do not affect overall bank risk taking. The performance of small banks is negatively affected by restrictions on banking activities. Restrictions on banking activities and official supervisory power reduce credit risk taking for small banks but capital requirements regulation increases credit risk taking. This study concludes that bank regulation and supervision do not have uniform effects across all bank sizes in South Africa. Therefore policies should be designed to target different categories of bank sizes for them to be more effective in achieving their desired outcomes.
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Modelling aggregate risk of the South African banking industry in the context of the Basil Pillar II framework
- Authors: Khoza, Dingaan Jack
- Date: 2017
- Subjects: Banks and banking - South Africa , Banks and banking - Risk management - South Africa , Bank capital - South Africa , Financial statements - South Africa , Copulas (Mathematical statistics)
- Language: English
- Type: Masters (Thesis)
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10210/245834 , uj:25470
- Description: M.Com. , Abstract: This study uses the aggregate balance sheet and income statement of South African banks to implement a risk aggregation model that aggregates credit, market and operational risks with the aim of generating total risk estimates using both Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) as risk measures. The results are thereafter used to determine the supplemental Pillar II economic capital required in order to maintain the capital adequacy of the South African banking industry. We first model the return distributions due to credit and market risk using a multivariate risk factors sensitivity model, with the macroeconomic risk factors’ dynamics modelled through an asymmetric GARCH (generalize Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) model designed by Baba, Engle, Kraft and Krona (1990) (i.e. BEKK). Operational risk losses are assumed to follow a lognormal distribution. The Gaussian copula and t-copulas are then used to aggregate the three loss distributions (i.e. credit, market and operational risk distributions). The total risk given by copulas is compared to the total risk calculated through the less complex simple additive and variance-covariance methods. Our results suggest that the South African banking sector’s Pillar I regulatory capital as at end of December 2015 should be supplemented by an amount of approximately 52 billion ZAR when using as a benchmark the Gaussian copula risk aggregation model measured through the ES metric at 99.9% confidence level. These results suggest that the Pillar 2A capital requirement imposed by the SARB should double from the current maximum of 2% to 4%.
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- Authors: Khoza, Dingaan Jack
- Date: 2017
- Subjects: Banks and banking - South Africa , Banks and banking - Risk management - South Africa , Bank capital - South Africa , Financial statements - South Africa , Copulas (Mathematical statistics)
- Language: English
- Type: Masters (Thesis)
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10210/245834 , uj:25470
- Description: M.Com. , Abstract: This study uses the aggregate balance sheet and income statement of South African banks to implement a risk aggregation model that aggregates credit, market and operational risks with the aim of generating total risk estimates using both Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) as risk measures. The results are thereafter used to determine the supplemental Pillar II economic capital required in order to maintain the capital adequacy of the South African banking industry. We first model the return distributions due to credit and market risk using a multivariate risk factors sensitivity model, with the macroeconomic risk factors’ dynamics modelled through an asymmetric GARCH (generalize Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) model designed by Baba, Engle, Kraft and Krona (1990) (i.e. BEKK). Operational risk losses are assumed to follow a lognormal distribution. The Gaussian copula and t-copulas are then used to aggregate the three loss distributions (i.e. credit, market and operational risk distributions). The total risk given by copulas is compared to the total risk calculated through the less complex simple additive and variance-covariance methods. Our results suggest that the South African banking sector’s Pillar I regulatory capital as at end of December 2015 should be supplemented by an amount of approximately 52 billion ZAR when using as a benchmark the Gaussian copula risk aggregation model measured through the ES metric at 99.9% confidence level. These results suggest that the Pillar 2A capital requirement imposed by the SARB should double from the current maximum of 2% to 4%.
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The impact of the National. Credit Act (NCA) on risk in the South African banking system
- Authors: Landie, Denzel
- Date: 2014-06-10
- Subjects: Financial risk management - South Africa , Banks and banking - Risk management - South Africa , Banks and banking - South Africa , South Africa. National Credit Act, 2005
- Type: Thesis
- Identifier: uj:11479 , http://hdl.handle.net/10210/11175
- Description: M.Phil. (Economics) , There has been increasing focus on banking system stability worldwide, particularly due to the recent financial crisis experienced and the resultant adverse economic effects. In the case of a developing country like South Africa (SA), the stability of the banking system is even more important as it is crucial for the achievement of the country’s development goals. Credit extension is also a core component for facilitating economic and social development in the country. The downside risk attached to credit extension is that once it reaches a point of being excessive it can have a destabilising effect on the banking system and the economy. SA has experienced a rapid increase in credit extension since 2001, which prompted the implementation of the National Credit Act (NCA), with the intention of regulating the credit industry and improving the practices therein. More recently, further concerns have been raised by regulatory authorities around the possibility of an asset bubble in the SA economy as a result of the level of unsecured credit extended in the country. The objective of this study therefore is to investigate the impact of the NCA on risk, both credit and systemic, in the banking system. This is important, as investigating and understanding the impact of credit controls, like the NCA, on risk in the banking system is critical to supporting the SA development agenda. The findings of this study show that the NCA has been successful in reducing credit risk in the banking system, even though this was by default and not through the stated intention of the Act. This was achieved through the introduction of the affordability requirement into the credit assessment process. This study highlights however, that there are still areas of improvement which can be made to the NCA to increase its effectiveness in preventing excessive credit extension.
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- Authors: Landie, Denzel
- Date: 2014-06-10
- Subjects: Financial risk management - South Africa , Banks and banking - Risk management - South Africa , Banks and banking - South Africa , South Africa. National Credit Act, 2005
- Type: Thesis
- Identifier: uj:11479 , http://hdl.handle.net/10210/11175
- Description: M.Phil. (Economics) , There has been increasing focus on banking system stability worldwide, particularly due to the recent financial crisis experienced and the resultant adverse economic effects. In the case of a developing country like South Africa (SA), the stability of the banking system is even more important as it is crucial for the achievement of the country’s development goals. Credit extension is also a core component for facilitating economic and social development in the country. The downside risk attached to credit extension is that once it reaches a point of being excessive it can have a destabilising effect on the banking system and the economy. SA has experienced a rapid increase in credit extension since 2001, which prompted the implementation of the National Credit Act (NCA), with the intention of regulating the credit industry and improving the practices therein. More recently, further concerns have been raised by regulatory authorities around the possibility of an asset bubble in the SA economy as a result of the level of unsecured credit extended in the country. The objective of this study therefore is to investigate the impact of the NCA on risk, both credit and systemic, in the banking system. This is important, as investigating and understanding the impact of credit controls, like the NCA, on risk in the banking system is critical to supporting the SA development agenda. The findings of this study show that the NCA has been successful in reducing credit risk in the banking system, even though this was by default and not through the stated intention of the Act. This was achieved through the introduction of the affordability requirement into the credit assessment process. This study highlights however, that there are still areas of improvement which can be made to the NCA to increase its effectiveness in preventing excessive credit extension.
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Modelling systemic risk in the South African banking sector using CoVaR
- Authors: Manguzvane, Mathias Mandla
- Date: 2016
- Subjects: Banks and banking - Risk management - South Africa , Financial risk management - South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Masters (Thesis)
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10210/225562 , uj:22787
- Description: Abstract: This study empirically analyzes systemic risk in the South African banking sector with the aim of identifying the systemically important banks. To this end, Adrian and Brunnermeier’s (2008) Conditional Value at Risk (CoVaR) approach has been employed to measure systemic risk in the South African banking sector. To measure the marginal contributions of individual banks to systemic risk, the delta CoVaR (ΔCoVaR) was calculated, which is the difference between CoVaR when individual banks are in a normal state and CoVaR when they are in distress. Kupiec’s (1995) coverage test to back test the Value at Risk (VaR) models was also employed. The period 19 June 2007 to 11 April 2016 was covered, using daily stock market prices for six banks. The findings indicate that the two largest banks, namely First Rand Bank and Standard Bank, are the highest contributors to systemic risk, while the smallest bank, namely African Bank, contributes least. Another interesting observation is that the contribution of banks to systemic risk tends to increase during times of financial crises. Moreover, the results show that the information contained in the VaR is different from that in delta CoVaR, hence raising a need for regulators to go beyond idiosyncratic measures such VaR if systemic risk is to be curbed. Thus there is a need to go beyond micro prudential regulation if soundness and stability are to be attained. , M.Com. (Financial Economics)
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- Authors: Manguzvane, Mathias Mandla
- Date: 2016
- Subjects: Banks and banking - Risk management - South Africa , Financial risk management - South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Masters (Thesis)
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10210/225562 , uj:22787
- Description: Abstract: This study empirically analyzes systemic risk in the South African banking sector with the aim of identifying the systemically important banks. To this end, Adrian and Brunnermeier’s (2008) Conditional Value at Risk (CoVaR) approach has been employed to measure systemic risk in the South African banking sector. To measure the marginal contributions of individual banks to systemic risk, the delta CoVaR (ΔCoVaR) was calculated, which is the difference between CoVaR when individual banks are in a normal state and CoVaR when they are in distress. Kupiec’s (1995) coverage test to back test the Value at Risk (VaR) models was also employed. The period 19 June 2007 to 11 April 2016 was covered, using daily stock market prices for six banks. The findings indicate that the two largest banks, namely First Rand Bank and Standard Bank, are the highest contributors to systemic risk, while the smallest bank, namely African Bank, contributes least. Another interesting observation is that the contribution of banks to systemic risk tends to increase during times of financial crises. Moreover, the results show that the information contained in the VaR is different from that in delta CoVaR, hence raising a need for regulators to go beyond idiosyncratic measures such VaR if systemic risk is to be curbed. Thus there is a need to go beyond micro prudential regulation if soundness and stability are to be attained. , M.Com. (Financial Economics)
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A South African retail bank’s readiness to knowledge management implementation
- Authors: Mogale, Elshia
- Date: 2015-04-15
- Subjects: Banks and banking - South Africa , Banks and banking - Risk management - South Africa , Knowledge management - South Africa
- Type: Thesis
- Identifier: uj:13543 , http://hdl.handle.net/10210/13660
- Description: M.Com. (Business Management) , This study focuses on one specific knowledge management process, namely the knowledge sharing process within an operational risk management cluster of a chosen South African retail bank. The study specifically focuses on the bi- weekly meetings that are used as platforms for knowledge sharing sessions. The primary objective of the study, is to ascertain how well the corporate investment bankers, shared services and CIB Africa operational risk management cluster is effectively utilising its meetings in terms of knowledge sharing to ensure that the operational risk management strategies of the chosen bank, provides optimal assurance to its stakeholders that the bank operates within its operational risk appetite. The study is divided into five chapters. The first chapter provides the readers with a thorough understanding of the research problem and topic. The second chapter provides the theoretical framework of the literature pertaining to the context of knowledge management with a specific focus of knowledge sharing. The third chapter discusses the research methodology adopted to conduct the study. The fourth chapter discusses the empirical findings and discussion of the study. Lastly, chapter five provides conclusions, recommendations and possibilities for further research. The theoretical framework of study began by focusing broadly on the concept of knowledge management weaving its way to the specific concept of knowledge sharing. A single case research approach was adopted. All respondents were attendants of the bi-weekly knowledge sharing sessions held in the chosen bank. The empirical findings of the study revealed that there is no common awareness and understanding of the concepts of knowledge management and knowledge sharing within the chosen bank. It was further established that factors such as the role of organisational culture, leadership involvement and participation, and rewards and incentives were key factors that had the ability to either enable or hinder the knowledge-sharing within the chosen bank.
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- Authors: Mogale, Elshia
- Date: 2015-04-15
- Subjects: Banks and banking - South Africa , Banks and banking - Risk management - South Africa , Knowledge management - South Africa
- Type: Thesis
- Identifier: uj:13543 , http://hdl.handle.net/10210/13660
- Description: M.Com. (Business Management) , This study focuses on one specific knowledge management process, namely the knowledge sharing process within an operational risk management cluster of a chosen South African retail bank. The study specifically focuses on the bi- weekly meetings that are used as platforms for knowledge sharing sessions. The primary objective of the study, is to ascertain how well the corporate investment bankers, shared services and CIB Africa operational risk management cluster is effectively utilising its meetings in terms of knowledge sharing to ensure that the operational risk management strategies of the chosen bank, provides optimal assurance to its stakeholders that the bank operates within its operational risk appetite. The study is divided into five chapters. The first chapter provides the readers with a thorough understanding of the research problem and topic. The second chapter provides the theoretical framework of the literature pertaining to the context of knowledge management with a specific focus of knowledge sharing. The third chapter discusses the research methodology adopted to conduct the study. The fourth chapter discusses the empirical findings and discussion of the study. Lastly, chapter five provides conclusions, recommendations and possibilities for further research. The theoretical framework of study began by focusing broadly on the concept of knowledge management weaving its way to the specific concept of knowledge sharing. A single case research approach was adopted. All respondents were attendants of the bi-weekly knowledge sharing sessions held in the chosen bank. The empirical findings of the study revealed that there is no common awareness and understanding of the concepts of knowledge management and knowledge sharing within the chosen bank. It was further established that factors such as the role of organisational culture, leadership involvement and participation, and rewards and incentives were key factors that had the ability to either enable or hinder the knowledge-sharing within the chosen bank.
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Analysis of operational risk in the South African banking sector using the standardised measurement approach
- Authors: Nyathi, Mandla
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Banks and banking - South Africa , Banks and banking - Risk management - South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Masters (Thesis)
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10210/403085 , uj:33761
- Description: Abstract : Over the last decade, financial markets across the world have been devastated by operational risk-related incidents. These incidents were caused by a number of aspects, such as, inter alia, fraud, improper business practices, natural disasters, and technology failures. As new losses are incurred, they become part of each financial institution’s internal loss database. The inclusion of these losses has caused notable upward spikes in the operational risk Pillar I regulatory capital charge for financial institutions across the board. The inherent imperfections in people, processes, and systems–be it by intention or oversight–are exposures that cannot be entirely eliminated from bank operations. Thus, the South African Reserve Bank mandates South African financial institutions to reserve capital to cover their idiosyncratic operational risk exposures. Investors fund capital reserves that are held by financial institutions, and these stakeholders demand a viable return on their investment. Consequently, the risk exposure and capital held relationship should be fully understood, managed, and optimised. This thesis extends Sundmacher (2007)’s work through the use of one instance of the Standardised Measurement Approach data against that of the Advanced Measurement Approach, the Standardised Approach, and the Basic Indicator Approach to estimate the potential financial benefit that financial institutions in South Africa could attain or lose, should they move from a Basic Indicator Approach to a Standardised Approach, or from a Standardised Approach to an Advanced Measurement Approach, or from an Advanced Measurement Approach to a Standardised Measurement Approach. The Advanced Measurement Approach, a Loss Distribution Approach coupled with a Monte Carlo simulation was used. Parametric models were imposed to generate the annual loss distribution through the convolution of the annual loss severity and frequency distribution. To fit the internal loss data for each class, the mean annual number of losses was calculated and was assumed to follow a Poisson distribution. The Maximum Likelihood Estimator was used to fit four severity distributions: Lognormal;Weibull; Generalized Pareto; and Burr distributions. To determine the goodness of fit, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test at a 5% level of significance was used. To select the best fitting distribution, the Akaike Information Criterion was used. Robustness and stability tests where then performed, using bootstrapping and stress-testing respectively. Overall, we find that the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision’s primary consideration that postulates that there is value in a financial institution moving from the Basic Indicator Approach to the Standardised Approach, or from the Standardised Approach to the Advanced Measurement Approach is indeed valid, but fails in the movement from an Advanced Measurement Approach to a Standardised Measurement Approach. The best Pillar I Capital reprieve is offered by the Diversified Advanced Measurement Approach, whilst the second best is the Standardised Measurement Approach based on an average total loss threshold of €100k (0.87% higher than the Diversified Advanced Measurement Approach), closely followed by the default Standardised Measurement Approach based on average total loss threshold of €20k (5.63% higher than the Diversified Advanced Measurement Approach). To the best of our abilities, we could not find any work that is comprehensive enough to include all four available operational risk quantification approaches (Basic Indicator Approach, Standardised Approach, Advanced Measurement Approach, and Standardised Measurement Approach), for the South African market in particular. This work foresees South African financial institutions pushing back on the implementation of SMA, and potentially lobbying the regulator to remain in AMA – as the alternative might mean increased capital requirements leading to reduced Economic Value Added to shareholders (as more capital is required at the same level of profitability or business activity). The financial institutions are anticipated to sight advanced modelling techniques as helping management have a deeper understanding of their exposures – whilst the Scenario Analysis process allows them a method of identifying their key risks and quantifying them (adding to management’s tools set). However, if South African financial institutions want to compete at a global stage and wanted to be accepted among ‘internationally active’ institutions – their adoption of SMA may not be a choice but an obligation and an entry ticket to the game (global trade). , M.Com. (Financial Economics)
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- Authors: Nyathi, Mandla
- Date: 2018
- Subjects: Banks and banking - South Africa , Banks and banking - Risk management - South Africa
- Language: English
- Type: Masters (Thesis)
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10210/403085 , uj:33761
- Description: Abstract : Over the last decade, financial markets across the world have been devastated by operational risk-related incidents. These incidents were caused by a number of aspects, such as, inter alia, fraud, improper business practices, natural disasters, and technology failures. As new losses are incurred, they become part of each financial institution’s internal loss database. The inclusion of these losses has caused notable upward spikes in the operational risk Pillar I regulatory capital charge for financial institutions across the board. The inherent imperfections in people, processes, and systems–be it by intention or oversight–are exposures that cannot be entirely eliminated from bank operations. Thus, the South African Reserve Bank mandates South African financial institutions to reserve capital to cover their idiosyncratic operational risk exposures. Investors fund capital reserves that are held by financial institutions, and these stakeholders demand a viable return on their investment. Consequently, the risk exposure and capital held relationship should be fully understood, managed, and optimised. This thesis extends Sundmacher (2007)’s work through the use of one instance of the Standardised Measurement Approach data against that of the Advanced Measurement Approach, the Standardised Approach, and the Basic Indicator Approach to estimate the potential financial benefit that financial institutions in South Africa could attain or lose, should they move from a Basic Indicator Approach to a Standardised Approach, or from a Standardised Approach to an Advanced Measurement Approach, or from an Advanced Measurement Approach to a Standardised Measurement Approach. The Advanced Measurement Approach, a Loss Distribution Approach coupled with a Monte Carlo simulation was used. Parametric models were imposed to generate the annual loss distribution through the convolution of the annual loss severity and frequency distribution. To fit the internal loss data for each class, the mean annual number of losses was calculated and was assumed to follow a Poisson distribution. The Maximum Likelihood Estimator was used to fit four severity distributions: Lognormal;Weibull; Generalized Pareto; and Burr distributions. To determine the goodness of fit, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test at a 5% level of significance was used. To select the best fitting distribution, the Akaike Information Criterion was used. Robustness and stability tests where then performed, using bootstrapping and stress-testing respectively. Overall, we find that the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision’s primary consideration that postulates that there is value in a financial institution moving from the Basic Indicator Approach to the Standardised Approach, or from the Standardised Approach to the Advanced Measurement Approach is indeed valid, but fails in the movement from an Advanced Measurement Approach to a Standardised Measurement Approach. The best Pillar I Capital reprieve is offered by the Diversified Advanced Measurement Approach, whilst the second best is the Standardised Measurement Approach based on an average total loss threshold of €100k (0.87% higher than the Diversified Advanced Measurement Approach), closely followed by the default Standardised Measurement Approach based on average total loss threshold of €20k (5.63% higher than the Diversified Advanced Measurement Approach). To the best of our abilities, we could not find any work that is comprehensive enough to include all four available operational risk quantification approaches (Basic Indicator Approach, Standardised Approach, Advanced Measurement Approach, and Standardised Measurement Approach), for the South African market in particular. This work foresees South African financial institutions pushing back on the implementation of SMA, and potentially lobbying the regulator to remain in AMA – as the alternative might mean increased capital requirements leading to reduced Economic Value Added to shareholders (as more capital is required at the same level of profitability or business activity). The financial institutions are anticipated to sight advanced modelling techniques as helping management have a deeper understanding of their exposures – whilst the Scenario Analysis process allows them a method of identifying their key risks and quantifying them (adding to management’s tools set). However, if South African financial institutions want to compete at a global stage and wanted to be accepted among ‘internationally active’ institutions – their adoption of SMA may not be a choice but an obligation and an entry ticket to the game (global trade). , M.Com. (Financial Economics)
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