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A framework for energy in South Africa with special reference to a long term forecast for energy demand

- Cooper, Christopher John

Authors: Cooper, Christopher John
Date: 2015-02-09
Subjects: Force and energy , Power resources
Type: Thesis
Identifier: uj:13217 , http://hdl.handle.net/10210/13243
Description: M.Phil. , The construction of mathematical models for making projections of future energy demand is an important step in the formulation of an energy policy for a country or region. In this dissertation the different approaches to energy modelling are investigated. The history of the modelling effort in the world and South Africa is briefly discussed. The development of a comprehensive database is of vital importance for the success of any modelling effort. An energy database for South Africa was developed. An existing energy forecasting model was updated and extended to cover eleven final consuming sectors. Projections of energy demand were made to illustrate the mechanism of the model.
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An integrated information system to support energy policy formulation in South Africa : a conceptual study

- Cooper, Christopher John

Authors: Cooper, Christopher John
Date: 2014-03-17
Subjects: Energy policy - South Africa , Information resources management - South Africa , Power resources - Simulation methods
Type: Thesis
Identifier: uj:4358 , http://hdl.handle.net/10210/9707
Description: Ph.D. (Energy Studies) , The underlying assumption of this thesis is that information is critical for effective energy policy support. The objectives set and attained for this study were to: • assess existing solutions to the problem of supplying energy information; • consider developments in integrated conceptual solutions to the problems; • identify and analyse data structures for providing a single integrated information system as a solution; • evaluate and identify local energy and economic data sources for input to the proposed system; • provide a framework for information outputs in such an integrated system; and • make recommendations on the practical implementation of the conceptual . solution. The concepts underlying the basic assumption, and other parameters were clarified in Chapter 1. In particular, the link between policy formulation, modeling, and data collection, management and dissemination was shown. A study and assessment of existing energy information systems was then carried out. This investigated national systems in South Africa and other countries, and the systems of three international organisations. The structure and management of these energy information systems was assessed, as was the degree to which each provided the necessary support for policy formulation. Legislation was, where applicable, also considered. It was determined from this study and assessment that there were no integrated information systems to provide adequate information for energy policy makers through a single access point. An integrated single access point system was postulated at the conceptual level in Chapter 3. The major contribution to this conceptualisation is the concept of a single standardised referential data set A single referential data set can be used to classify all data at every level of the proposed integrated national energy information system. This integrated approach supports policy formulation and allows for the most efficient use of national resources in maintaining information. The proposed system was considered as a data flow model, to provide an overview of the collection, processing and dissemination of data. Next, a system model was developed. This divided the system into two broad divisions: the central control functions, including the referential data set; and the data modules, which provide the structure for capturing and maintaining the collected data. The final stage in this chapter . was the development of a data model which shows the relationships between the elements of the system model, particularly the relationship between the referential data set and all other data. In Chapter 4, this data model was developed further to identify entity sets and their content descriptions. It indicates in tabular format the structure of the different system components, and then shows diagrammatically the high level linkages between these components; This analysis of the proposed system is the precursor to work by systems analysts who are responsible for the final design specifications for system software. In Chapter 5 the objective was to determine sources of data for input to the national system. The South African energy economy was briefly studied and assessed for both supply and demand side information. Finally in Chapter 6, a set of output templates was developed. Once fully implemented, these will provide system users with all the necessary information to support policy formulation. Desired outputs from a system must be known before the system is designed, and are therefor included.
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Die regering se rol in die ontwikkeling en implementering van alternatiewe hernubare energiebronne in Suid-Afrika

- Stassen, Gideon

Authors: Stassen, Gideon
Date: 2014-04-14
Subjects: Power resources - South Africa , Renewable energy sources - South Africa
Type: Thesis
Identifier: uj:10635 , http://hdl.handle.net/10210/10155
Description: M.Phil. ( Energy Studies) , In contrast to conventional energy sources, the advantage of renewable energy lies in the fact that it is virtually inexhaustible and that its utilisation is accompanied by minima environmental pollution. I t is, furthermore, very appropriate especially seen in the light of the large Third World component of the South African energy economy. It therefore becomes necessary to evaluate the adequacy of Government strategy as far as the optimal development and utilisation of the renewable energy sources with the best potential in South Africa are concerned, against present and future needs for and the utilisation possibilities of these sources...
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Die relatiewe ekonomie van sekere direkte en indirekte prosesse vir die vervaardiging van sintetiese olieprodukte.

- Niemandt, Mathys Johannes

Authors: Niemandt, Mathys Johannes
Date: 2014-02-10
Subjects: Synthetic fuels , Energy policy , Petroleum products
Type: Thesis
Identifier: uj:3698 , http://hdl.handle.net/10210/9080
Description: M.Phil. (Energy Studies) , South Africa has no commercially proven indigenous crude oil deposits. The country therefore follows a well formulated longterm energy policy to ensure a continuous and uninterrupted supply of transport fuels. The development of a very successful synfuel industry contributes to the national desire of maintaining a minimum level of self sufficiency in transport fuels. The Government also plays a supportive role in financing synthetic fuel projects from the Central Energy Fund. South Africa has abundant coal resources at a reasonable cost, as well as the offshore gas field near the coast of Mosselbay. The objective of this study is therefore to evaluate and compare the re1athe economics of certain direct and indirect coal liquefaction process routes, as well as the conversion of natural gas to transport fuels. The methanol option as a transport fuel is also addressed. Information for this study was collected mainly from the literature on this subject as well as Government institutions and private companies that are actively involved in the production of synthetic transport fuels. The primary conclusions of this study are: Synthetic fuel projects are capital intensive. The number of commercially proven options for the production of synfuels are limited to the well proven technology of the Sasol process, conventional methanol synthesis technology and to a lessor extent the Mobil methanol-to-gasoline technology. Accurate costs comparisons will therefore only be possible when more of the direct liquefaction options have been commercially demonstrated. Commercial realisat ion of the unproven technologies also involve enormous financial resources and a high risk. The Sasol synfuel option with the lowest thermal efficiency of approximately 42% requires the highest capital investment per ton or barrel of final product. The high severity direct processes (H-coal, Exxon-Donor-Solvent or EDS and the German Technology) as well as the Mobil-MTG capital investment follows, with the low severity and high thermal efficiency SRC-1 and SRC-2 process capital requirements the lowest, except for the very low,capital investment for a methanol synthesis plant...
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Spesifieke verbruik van steenkool in die Suid-Afrikaanse energie-ekonomie met spesiale verwysing na die invloed van hoër steenkoolpryse

- Van Rooyen, Gerhardus Christiaan

Authors: Van Rooyen, Gerhardus Christiaan
Date: 2014-09-15
Subjects: Coal - South Africa - Reserves , Coal - Prices - South Africa , Energy consumption - South Africa - Forecasting
Type: Thesis
Identifier: uj:12294 , http://hdl.handle.net/10210/12080
Description: M.Phil. , Coal is today providing more than seventy-five percent of South Africa's energy requirements and will, to a large extent, remain so in the future. It is thus important to evaluate the adequacy of the country's available coal resources against expected future demand. The main objective of this study, which was done under the supervision of Prof. D. J. Kotze, was therefore to analyse the specific consumption of coal in the various consumption sectors in order to establish historical trends. The specific comsumption of coal is defined as the amount of coal used to produce a unit of final product. The factors attributing to these observed trends were determined and their future role evaluated in order to establish whether it was possible to extrapolate historical trends into the future. By means of curve fitting to the observed data and extrapolation it was possible to obtain future values of specific coal consumption for each of the sectors. These values, together with the production output forecasts for the various sectors were then used to calculate the total coal requirements for three reference years, namely, 1990, 1995 and 2000. The role of coal prices in explaining trends in specific coal consumption of various sectors was also analised separately. Information to conduct the study was obtained mainly from the various coal producers' associations as well as from individual producers and other organizations such as Escom, Sasol and Iscor, the Department of Hineral and Energy Affairs and the Hinerals Bureau. In some instances private firms and producers' associations were also consulted as well as a wide variety of literature on the subject. The principal finding of the study was that coal was substituted or was still being substituted by electricity in most final applications because of the convenience of use. Coal, however, still plays and probably will continue to play an important role in future in basic industries such as the metallurgical industry. Coal prices have not up to now played a very important role in the overall specific consumption of coal which can probably be attributed to the relatively low prices of coal on the inland market. It was also found that it was not desirable to do away with the present system of price control entirely as a certain measure of control was still necessary to safeguard the usuage of coal in certain applications for which there were no other substitutes. It was further concluded that South Africa does not have the vast quantities of coal commonly thought and that measures have to be taken in order to ensure that the country's coal resources are conserved and that optimum use is made of available resources.
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