Macroeconomic convergence in SACU : a panel unit root analysis
- Authors: Maleke, Xaverina Nyatso
- Date: 2010-10-04T07:54:23Z
- Subjects: Southern African Customs Union , Macroeconomics , Convergence (Economics) , Monetary policy , Economic indicators
- Type: Thesis
- Identifier: uj:6910 , http://hdl.handle.net/10210/3421
- Description: M.Comm. , This study uses annual data for five SACU members over the period 1991-2005 to investigate the evidence for convergence in macroeconomic variables. Panel unit root test as an econometric tool is utilised together with other several approaches for this analysis. The results show significant evidence that the SACU countries have reached a reasonable level of convergence on specific macroeconomic variables. This can be attributed to common economic policies and institutional features. It is also evident that the countries that are members of the CMA show a dramatically higher convergence rate. As far as monetary policy is concerned, a high degree of convergence has been achieved in SACU. However, the results show no convergence on fiscal policies. This could be attributed to data constraint on debt to GDP which was used as a proxy for fiscal policy.
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The assessment of bank-risk in emerging markets
- Authors: Els, Jacques Pierre
- Date: 2014-09-15
- Subjects: Macroeconomics , Banks and banking , Economic indicators
- Type: Thesis
- Identifier: uj:12278 , http://hdl.handle.net/10210/12064
- Description: M.Com. (Business Management) , Until mid-1997, South East Asia was regarded as among the most economically successful regions of all time. Growth forecasts were very positive and current account deficits were equally satisfying, Then, on July 2, 1997, the Thai Baht suffered severe devaluation and subsequently sparked the "East Asian crisis" (Zaaiman & King, 3). The crisis started in Thailand and soon spread to Indonesia, the Philippines, South Korea and eventually Malaysia. Everyone was still measuring the spill-over effects that the Asian crisis had on other emerging markets when another piece of alarming news made the headlines. Russia's. Rouble suffered devaluation during October 1998 - slightly more than a year after the East Asian crisis first emerged. Suddenly emerging market economies became a major cause of concern and banks, like many other industries, within emerging markets were viewed with equal pessimism. The above two crises were unfortunately not the end of what was perceived to be a world-wide emerging market crisis. During December 1998, Brazil's Minister of Finance and the country's Central Banker both resigned within a short period, again sending shock waves throughout emerging markets. This situation was reminiscent of the' Mexican Peso devaluation and the crisis that followed accordingly in emerging markets in the early 1990's.
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An analysis of the Unbiased Forward Rate Hypothesis (UFRH) in developed and emerging economies
- Authors: Phungo, Mukatshelwa Phumudzo
- Date: 2019
- Subjects: International finance , Foreign exchange , Economic forecasting , Economic indicators
- Language: English
- Type: Masters (Thesis)
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10210/403057 , uj:33757
- Description: Abstract : This paper tests the unbiased forward rate hypothesis (UFRH) in selected developed and emerging economies within the context of nonlinear models. Moreover, the paper assesses the extent of the nonlinear adjustment towards equilibrium between the spot and forward exchange rates in these economies. Using the smooth transition error correction model (STECM) to account for long-run relationship and asymmetric adjustment between the spot and forward prices, the results of the empirical analysis reveal that there is nonlinear adjustment between the spot and forward exchange rates in developed and emerging economies. In addition, the results show that the magnitude of the speed of adjustment to mitigate arbitrage opportunities triggered by the deviation between the spot and forward prices is higher in emerging than in developed markets. This occurs because the size of arbitrage profit is higher in emerging markets compared to developed markets. , M.Com. (Financial Economics)
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