Revisiting three political risk forecast models: an empirical test
- Authors: Nel, Danielle
- Date: 2009-05-19T06:52:53Z
- Subjects: Country risk evaluation , Foreign investments
- Type: Thesis
- Identifier: uj:8390 , http://hdl.handle.net/10210/2555
- Description: M.A. , The discipline of political risk analysis has often been criticised as a ‘soft science’. As the title of this study suggest, the major challenge of this study is set out to provide an empirical analysis of political risk and to prove that political risk can indeed be measured. The aim of this study is to provide an empirical analysis of political risk by testing the reliability of current risk assessment approaches to accurately forecast political risk. There have not been many attempts to test the reliability of political risk assessment models. However, Howell & Chaddick (1994) tested the reliability of three (EIU, PRS and BERI) political risk assessment models to accurately forecast risk projections in the period 1982-1994. This study will revisit the test done by Howell & Chaddick (1994) in order to determine the reliability of three forecast models. In order for forecasts to be reliable, forecasts must be justified and defended by applying practical logic. Practical logic implies that theory be tested against real world experience. Hence, a reliable analysis will require that actual losses be tested against theory. Therefore, in addressing the connection between theory and actual losses, this study will correlate losses incurred in the period 1994- 2004 with theory. Due to the nominal nature of the concept political risk, there has been a lack of consensus in the field on what constitute political risk. This study will provide a conceptual clarification of political risk. A brief discussion of the underlying theoretical background in political risk is required in order to understand the concept of political risk and terms thereof. Hence, this study will establish a theoretical base of political risk analysis. This study argue that low political risk encourage foreign direct investment. The relationship between political risk and foreign direct investment will be analysed in this study. It is hoped that in light of this study’s findings, a case can be putt III forth that multi-national corporations can use political risk analysis to minimise exposure to losses and as an extension of political risk analysis, multi-national corporations can use political risk insurance to hedge against political risks. The outcomes of this study aim to prove that political risk can be empirically tested and measured and that the analysis of political risk is essential to successfully manage political risks.
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Systematic risk management and strategic control in public private partnerships
- Authors: Nel, Danielle
- Date: 2014-05-29
- Subjects: Risk management , Public-private sector cooperation
- Type: Thesis
- Identifier: uj:11233 , http://hdl.handle.net/10210/10826
- Description: D.Litt et Phil. (Public Management and Governance) , Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) are contractual arrangements between the public and private sector, which are generally long-term in nature. If correctly implemented PPPs can mobilise socio-economic goals. The implementation of PPPs is to permit the delivery of continued, lucrative public organisation or services, by mobilising private sector proficiency and conveying a substantial amount of risk to the private sector, towards value for money. The incentive of the research is centred on the guiding principles of PPPs and the challenge of risk-sharing. The aim of this study is to encourage the systematic management and strategic control of PPPs in South Africa. In doing so, this study aims to determine how the PPP model can be improved to necessitate effective risk management in PPPs, and to provide for improved strategic control. The study supplies recommendations for improved practice, in both the public and private sectors, through strategic planning and shared apparata in PPP arrangements. Furthermore, the study suggests guidelines for effective risk sharing and management in PPPs, through integrated systems management. Integrated systems management proposes that the strategy, structures, systems and culture of PPPs are entrenched in organisational settings, in both the private and public sector, as well as in the PPP arrangement, to encourage capacity development and more developed institutions in South Africa. Effective risk management in PPPs necessitates the anticipation of risks; sufficient planning to address these risks and achieve project objectives; and, lastly, the entrenching of risk management within the organisation and project structures. The study commences with an overview of the development of public management and conceptual approaches of governance, providing a contextual synthesis of past and current theoretical perspectives. The study conceptualises the theoretical standpoints relevant to PPPs and the labelling of peripheral approaches. The research provides a synopsis of the role and functions of PPPs, international best practices in PPPs, and the nature of risk management in PPPs. This affords a foundation for investigating the trials and issues associated with PPPs and the challenges experienced in managing risks in PPPs. This is augmented with a systematic breakdown of the research design and methodology, to structure the research. In addition, a preliminary quantitative survey assessment is conducted, in order to derive preliminary findings for the primary analysis in the research.
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