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Critical considerations in transport service demand forecasting : a literature review

  • Authors: Okoro, Chioma , Musonda, Innocent , Agumba, Justus
  • Date: 2016
  • Subjects: Demand , Forecasting , Infrastructure
  • Language: English
  • Type: Conference proceedings
  • Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10210/214949 , uj:21345 , Citation: Okoro, C., Musonda, I & Agumba, J. 2016. Critical considerations in transport service demand forecasting : a literature review.
  • Description: Abstract: Infrastructure plays important roles in the development of cities, improvement in the quality of lives and overall socio-economic development and growth of economies. Infrastructure projects are, however, fraught with uncertainties regarding costs, benefits and performance. These uncertainties, if not accurately predicted in the planning of projects, could result in undesirable financial, social and economic consequences. The aim of the current paper is to identify critical factors which influence transport infrastructure performance forecasting outcomes and which should essentially be considered in order to minimize or eliminate errors. A review of related literature was conducted from journals, conference proceedings, magazines, theses and dissertations using databases including Science Direct, Emerald, Ebscohost, Academic Search Complete and ASCE library. The studies reviewed were based on international and South African context. Results revealed that project characteristics including size of project, capacity improvement and time lapses between construction life cycle phases, availability and type of data used, methodology used as well as traffic demand factors influence the outcome and validity of transport infrastructure feasibility studies. The study provides invaluable information to built environment professionals and stakeholders as well as infrastructure policymakers in accurately assessing probable outcomes, positive, in terms of benefits and negative, with regard to costs of proposed projects in order to avoid financial and economic risks. In addition, the study will be indispensable to infrastructure financiers and developers in effective allocation of scarce construction/development funds.
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Planning considerations for smart and sustainable transportation infrastructure: case study of non-motorised transport facilities in Johannesburg South Africa

  • Authors: Okoro, Chioma , Musonda, Innocent
  • Date: 2019
  • Subjects: Infrastructure , Non-motorised transport , Safety
  • Language: English
  • Type: Conference proceedings
  • Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10210/396822 , uj:32957 , Citation: Okoro, C. & Musonda, I. 2019. Planning considerations for smart and sustainable transportation infrastructure: case study of non-motorised transport facilities in Johannesburg South Africa.
  • Description: Abstract: Non-motorised transportation (NMT) infrastructure, including for walking, cycling and other forms of active or human-powered transport, is a key part of the overall transport network of any "smart" city. Attention to key factors that could potentially influence the sustainability of NMT infrastructure systems at the planning stage is arguably crucial in achieving a sustainable and smart transport network. This study examines critical factors taken into account in the planning and delivery of NMTs to ensure the delivery of sustainable and smart transport networks. Three projects in Johannesburg, South Africa were selected using convenience sampling, based on the availability of information. Document analysis and interview were employed for data collection. Thematic content analysis was conducted with the aid of atlas-ti software. Findings revealed that community’s specific needs with regard to accessibility and services, design, costs, distribution and speed of traffic, distances, as well as occurrence of accidents and incidents were critical factors considered in the planning of NMT infrastructure. Other factors included locational characteristics such as topography, and existing land uses which may affect facility costs and integration of NMT infrastructure. The provision of non- motorised transport facilities, not only ensures the safety of road users, but improves liveability and quality of life and welfare of communities, as well as environment and as such, attention to the factors which should ideally be considered at the planning stage to ensure sustainability of the NMT system is vital.
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Traffic demand determinants : a review of long-term scenario effects

  • Authors: Okoro, Chioma , Musonda, Innocent , Agumba, Justus
  • Date: 2016
  • Subjects: Forecasting , Infrastructure , Planning
  • Language: English
  • Type: Conference proceedings
  • Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10210/216628 , uj:21532 , Citation: Okoro, C., Musonda, I & Agumba, J. 2016. Traffic demand determinants : a review of long-term scenario effects.
  • Description: Abstract: Transportation infrastructure provision is critical to the development of urban areas. Transport infrastructure such as roads, bridges, and ports are increasingly becoming the corner stone in determining the strength of cities, improving the quality of lives and overall socio-economic development and growth of economies. However, these projects are stochastic in nature and fraught with uncertainties which, if not accurately predicted, can lead to inadequate assessment and management of risks. The aim of the present paper is to identify critical factors which moderate traffic demand over a long period of time, and which should ideally be included in transport demand forecasts. A detailed review of literature was conducted from online journals, conference proceedings and theses using databases including Science Direct, Ebscohost, Google, Emerald and ASCE Library. Findings show that socio-economic factors (such as income, age, employment, vehicle operating costs, fuel price and tax polices), sociocultural factors (such as security, comfort, alternative/competing transport modes, leisure time), and environmental factors (such as pollution, traffic congestion, distance from station and frequency of trips) influence traffic demand. These findings would provide valuable evidence for adequate management of risks in infrastructure planning, and for public policy.
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Sustainability indicators for a transportation infrastructure investor

An exploratory factor analysis of transportation project sustainability indicators : a case of projects in South Africa

  • Authors: Okoro, Chioma , Musonda, Innocent , Agumba, Justus Ngala
  • Date: 2019
  • Subjects: Infrastructure , Performance , South Africa
  • Language: English
  • Type: Conference proceedings
  • Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10210/396810 , uj:32956 , Citation: Okoro, C., Musonda, I. & Agumba, J.N. 2019. An exploratory factor analysis of transportation project sustainability indicators: a case of projects in South Africa.
  • Description: Abstract: Sustainable transportation is vital since its impact traverses generations. The concept of sustainable transportation is known to account for incorporation of various elements including environmental, economic, social and institutional factors. The current study employed exploratory factor analytic technique using maximum likelihood factoring to identify critical indicators for assessing transportation infrastructure projects in South Africa. Using purposive and snowball sampling, a questionnaire was distributed via email, google forms and by hand, to project managers, directors, construction managers, planners and feasibility study consultants involved in transportation projects at different stages, in the nine provinces of South Africa. Empirical data amassed from 132 responses, were analysed using SPSS version 25 software.s Descriptive analyses were used for preliminary analyses. Inferential statistics was conducted using exploratory factor analysis, to output common factors and the minimum number of variables that were related to each construct. Findings revealed that a four-factor structure including infrastructure condition and impacts, user acceptability, financial management and safety and security, can adequately measure transportation infrastructure project sustainability. By establishing critical indicators for assessing transportation projects, the study provides relevant evidence to develop strategies to ensure that such investments bring lasting and desirable impacts in the long run. The study was conducted in South Africa and may not be generalisable to other geographical regions, which may have differing priorities with regard to sustainable performance of transport infrastructure. Further studies are on-going to validate the four-factor structure using confirmatory factor analytical techniques.
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Feasibility study considerations for transport infrastructure performance : a desk study

A factor analysis of transportation infrastructure feasibility study factors : a study among built environment professionals in South Africa

A factor analysis of transportation infrastructure feasibility study factors : a study among built environment professionals in South Africa

Validity and reliability of a transportation infrastructure sustainable performance framework : a study of transport projects in South Africa

Validating a framework of transportation infrastructure project sustainability measures

  • Authors: Okoro, Chioma Sylvia , Musonda, Innocent , Agumba, Justus Ngala
  • Date: 2019
  • Subjects: Confirmatory factor analysis , Infrastructure , South Africa
  • Language: English
  • Type: Conference proceedings
  • Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10210/407489 , uj:34302 , Citation: Okoro, C.S., Musonda, I., Agumba, J.N. 2019: Validating a framework of transportation infrastructure project sustainability measures.
  • Description: Abstract: t Purpose of this paper Transportation infrastructure contributes significantly to any economy. However, the long-lasting nature of such projects is threatened if sustainability elements are not taken cognizance of during the planning and operation stages of the projects. The objective of the current study is to validate a structure of transportation project sustainability measures to evaluate projects and ensure continual delivery of intended benefits in the long run. Design Empirical data were collected using a field questionnaire survey developed from literature review and a preliminary qualitative inquiry. A total of 132 built environment professionals were included based on purposeful and snowball sampling techniques. A model-generating confirmatory factor analysis was undertaken to validate underlying structures of sustainability measures. Findings The findings validated that a four-factor structure, with eleven variables, could adequately measure transportation infrastructure project sustainability (PS). The CFA structure achieved construct, convergent and discriminant validity, with fewer variables than theorised and established in the exploratory factor analysis. Value The validated four-factor structure is envisaged to be beneficial to transportation infrastructure project stakeholders in better decision-making with regard to selecting worthwhile projects as well as monitor operational projects with the aim of delivering long-term benefits to generations of users.
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