Critical considerations in transport service demand forecasting : a literature review
- Authors: Okoro, Chioma , Musonda, Innocent , Agumba, Justus
- Date: 2016
- Subjects: Demand , Forecasting , Infrastructure
- Language: English
- Type: Conference proceedings
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10210/214949 , uj:21345 , Citation: Okoro, C., Musonda, I & Agumba, J. 2016. Critical considerations in transport service demand forecasting : a literature review.
- Description: Abstract: Infrastructure plays important roles in the development of cities, improvement in the quality of lives and overall socio-economic development and growth of economies. Infrastructure projects are, however, fraught with uncertainties regarding costs, benefits and performance. These uncertainties, if not accurately predicted in the planning of projects, could result in undesirable financial, social and economic consequences. The aim of the current paper is to identify critical factors which influence transport infrastructure performance forecasting outcomes and which should essentially be considered in order to minimize or eliminate errors. A review of related literature was conducted from journals, conference proceedings, magazines, theses and dissertations using databases including Science Direct, Emerald, Ebscohost, Academic Search Complete and ASCE library. The studies reviewed were based on international and South African context. Results revealed that project characteristics including size of project, capacity improvement and time lapses between construction life cycle phases, availability and type of data used, methodology used as well as traffic demand factors influence the outcome and validity of transport infrastructure feasibility studies. The study provides invaluable information to built environment professionals and stakeholders as well as infrastructure policymakers in accurately assessing probable outcomes, positive, in terms of benefits and negative, with regard to costs of proposed projects in order to avoid financial and economic risks. In addition, the study will be indispensable to infrastructure financiers and developers in effective allocation of scarce construction/development funds.
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Traffic demand determinants : a review of long-term scenario effects
- Authors: Okoro, Chioma , Musonda, Innocent , Agumba, Justus
- Date: 2016
- Subjects: Forecasting , Infrastructure , Planning
- Language: English
- Type: Conference proceedings
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10210/216628 , uj:21532 , Citation: Okoro, C., Musonda, I & Agumba, J. 2016. Traffic demand determinants : a review of long-term scenario effects.
- Description: Abstract: Transportation infrastructure provision is critical to the development of urban areas. Transport infrastructure such as roads, bridges, and ports are increasingly becoming the corner stone in determining the strength of cities, improving the quality of lives and overall socio-economic development and growth of economies. However, these projects are stochastic in nature and fraught with uncertainties which, if not accurately predicted, can lead to inadequate assessment and management of risks. The aim of the present paper is to identify critical factors which moderate traffic demand over a long period of time, and which should ideally be included in transport demand forecasts. A detailed review of literature was conducted from online journals, conference proceedings and theses using databases including Science Direct, Ebscohost, Google, Emerald and ASCE Library. Findings show that socio-economic factors (such as income, age, employment, vehicle operating costs, fuel price and tax polices), sociocultural factors (such as security, comfort, alternative/competing transport modes, leisure time), and environmental factors (such as pollution, traffic congestion, distance from station and frequency of trips) influence traffic demand. These findings would provide valuable evidence for adequate management of risks in infrastructure planning, and for public policy.
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Feasibility study considerations for transport infrastructure performance : a desk study
- Authors: Okoro, Chioma Sylvia , Musonda, Innocent , Agumba, Justus Ngala
- Date: 2017
- Subjects: Forecasting , Infrastructure , Performance
- Language: English
- Type: Conference proceedings
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10210/241679 , uj:24911 , Citation: Okoro, C.S., Musonda, I. & Agumba, J.N. 2017. Feasibility study considerations for transport infrastructure performance : a desk study. The Ninth International Conference on Construction in the 21st Century (CITC-9), March 5th-7th, 2017, Dubai, United Arab Emirates.
- Description: Abstract: Transport infrastructure projects are complex, stochastic and fraught with uncertainties, which if not accurately predicted, can lead to inadequate assessment and management of risksand over time, poor performance in terms of costs, and associated expected benefits from implementation. The objective of this paper is to identify critical factors which should ideally be included in feasibility studies for adequate prediction of performance of road projects while in operation. A thorough in-depth desk study was conducted using extant literature (from conference proceedings and journals) and reports on feasibility and performance of transport infrastructure projects in Africa and world over. Findings revealed that effectiveness of procurement and financing strategies was the most considered factor during feasibility studies, among the sampled studies; followed by public participation, role of national government and traffic demand factors. Other factors included project environment, planning for operations and effectiveness of plans. These findings will be beneficial to investors who need assurance of the worthwhile performance of transport projects in which they intend to invest in. The study will inform selection of worthwhile projects among alternative and competing options which need to be implemented with limited resources.
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