The impact of inconsistent electricity supply and coal price shocks on JSE share return volatility
- Authors: Moloi, Tshepo
- Date: 2017
- Language: English
- Type: Masters (Thesis)
- Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/10210/272671 , uj:29037
- Description: M.Com. (Finance) , Abstract: In 2008, South Africa’s public enterprise Eskom began rolling power cuts due to not meeting the demand of the electricity power mainly produced by coal energy. With little research been done on financial share return volatility caused by coal energy shocks; in this study the impact of inconsistent electricity supply and coal energy prices shocks on JSE share returns volatility is examined. The monthly data period between 2005 and 2015 is used as this represents the peak period during which the country experienced significant energy supply disruption. To capture the share return volatility, GARCH-mean and EGARCH models are used while to analyse the impact of coal energy shocks on share returns; a Vector Auto-regression model is used. The results show that different JSE sector returns and their volatility react differently to shocks caused by coal prices and inconsistent electricity supply. When examining share returns, finance and industrial sector share returns initially rises for both coal price and inconsistent electricity supply shocks while mining sector share returns initially declines from a coal price shock only. For the industrial and mining sectors; a positive energy shock caused by coal price or inconsistent electricity supply implies lower volatility in the following period compared to the negative energy shock respectively. While for the agriculture sector, only a positive energy shock caused by coal price implies a lower volatility in the following period compared to the negative energy shock. However, it is found that these results are not dependent on initial energy shocks but are affected by energy shocks which happened two or three months prior. Furthermore, coal price shocks are likely to have a longer impact and less immediate change in the share return volatility in comparison to inconsistent electricity supply shocks.
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The Zachman Framework applied to construction engineering risk management
- Authors: Moloi, Tshepo
- Date: 2012-07-03
- Subjects: Construction projects - Management , Risk management - Data processing , Zachman Framework , Construction industry - Risk management , Management information systems - Data processing
- Type: Thesis
- Identifier: uj:8782 , http://hdl.handle.net/10210/5140
- Description: M.Ing. , The research is based on the complexity of project management and risk management fields and how applying each field on its own can be problematic. This poses an everyday challenge to project managers when implemented simultaneously and such a problem predominantly exists in the engineering construction field.The challenge faced by project managers is approached throughout the research study by introducing a commonly used six order matrix framework with a high success rate in analysing and dissecting complex fields into small fragments. The framework is known as the Zachman Framework for Enterprise Architecture. However this is only done once a thorough literature review of both project and risk management as well as the limitations of the Zachman Framework have been well documented.Once the Zachman Framework for Construction adaptation is complete, it is then applied to an inner city construction case study. The results of the case study are used to determine if throughout the project lifecycle it has been possible to analyse and implement all project and risk management requirements simultaneously with little or no correction of project constraints.Using a developed integrated risk management tool which graphically tracks aggregate risk( s) in cost and time together with the Zachman Framework for Construction, the case study results reveal that it is possible to increase the ability to simultaneously manage risk and normal activities by concluding that the project constraints (i.e. cost) are accurately estimated and accomplished. In conclusion the research study,discussion and recommendations are made in order to implement all cells within the Zachman Framework for Construction therefore increasing the success of any project and risk management construction field.
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