- Title
- Electric load forecasting for holiday periods
- Creator
- Godden, Kieran Richard
- Subject
- Electric power-plants - Load, Electric power systems - Load dispatching, Forecasting - Statistical methods, Electric power supplies to apparatus
- Date
- 2012-08-22
- Type
- Mini-Dissertation
- Identifier
- uj:3015
- Identifier
- http://hdl.handle.net/10210/6437
- Description
- M.Sc., The Christmas and Easter holiday periods have a large influence on electricity load. Forecasting the load for these periods is difficult since the changes in the load patterns are sudden and substantial. Furthermore, the effects of these periods on the load patterns are dependent on the timing of Easter and the weekday composition of Christmas, which change from year to year. A strategy is presented to forecast the hourly electricity load for these holiday periods as well as the periods shortly afterward. This strategy is based on a general fixed structure ARIMA model developed to forecast the hourly load for periods with no unusual load activity. The general model is supplemented by information on the two holiday periods, extracted from the corresponding periods in historical years by means of growth independent scale factors. A model for forecasting the total weekly load is also presented. This model makes use of intervention techniques to account for the changes in the load due to the Christmas and Easter holiday periods. The forecasting methodologies are all geared towards practical application and are suitable for on-line implementation.
- Contributor
- Prof. J.L.J. Snyman ; Prof. F. Lombard
- Full Text
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