- Title
- Time trends and associations between gross domestic product variations and transport service trade : evidence from South Africa
- Creator
- Pisa, Noleen, Luke, Rose
- Subject
- Exports, Imports, Transport services
- Date
- 2018
- Type
- Conference proceedings
- Identifier
- http://hdl.handle.net/10210/275853
- Identifier
- uj:29490
- Identifier
- Citation: Pisa, N. & Luke, R. 2018. Time trends and associations between gross domestic product variations and transport service trade : evidence from South Africa.
- Description
- Abstract: Aim: The aim of the present paper is to analyse time trends in transport services trade and to determine associations between gross domestic product (GDP) growth and transport services trade for South Africa. Methods: Associations between economic growth assessed through GDP as primary exposure and transport services for both exports and imports are reported for South Africa. Four indicators were used to assess transport services trade namely; percentage of commercial service exports; percentage of commercial service imports); percentage of service exports, balance of payment (BoP)] and percentage of service imports, BoP). Regressions were computed using Joinpoint statistical software to assess overtime trends for both exports and imports for transport services between 1992 and 2016. Trends in transport exports and imports services were assessed by calculating annual percentage changes (APC) using linear regression: ratey b0+b1 y with log (ratey) being the natural log of transport services (% of commercial service exports) in year y for example. APC in these services are reported and discussed. Results: Significant decreases in transport service exports were observed between 1993 and 1997 (APC = -6.33 p-value <0.05) and 2011 and 2016 (APC = -4.18 p-value = <0.05). Additionally, non-significant percentage increases in transport services exports were observed between 1997 and 2001 (APC = 4.61) and 2004 and 2011 (APC = 2.3). Both a significant and non-significant increases in transport service imports was observed between 1993 and 2007 (APC =1.19 p-value <0.05) and 2010 and 2014 (APC=4.86) respectively. Additionally, nonsignificant percentage decreases in transport services imports were observed between 2007 and 2010 (APC=4.61) and 2014 and 2016 (APC=2.3). Though slightly different over time trends estimates in terms of the APC of observed for transports service exports and imports, BOP they were similar and comparable to commercial transport service exports and imports respectively. Overall, there was no correlation between GDP and transport service trade. Conclusion: This study indicates that despite good ranking on the quality of infrastructure in Africa, South Africa has been experiencing a deficit transport services trade overtime. In addition, the results show that transport services trade was not trend associated with GDP growth in the time reported in the current study, as various fluctuations were observed.
- Language
- English
- Rights
- ©2018, authors
- Full Text
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