Abstract
M.Ing.
This research study is about evaluating the practicability of using systems
engineering approach to rural electrification project risk management.
The research was motivated by rural electrification projects in South Africa that
have suffered planning, design or operational problems due to uncertainties at project
site level.
The dissertation begins by describing the rural electrification background in the
first chapter. The process of electrifying rural areas, challenges, and achievements so
far in South Africa are presented. The government target for universal access to
electricity is also highlighted.
The next two chapters address the theory of systems engineering, and project risk
management as one of the elements of project management. The theory of systems
engineering approach to risk management is then applied to a typical electrification
project structure. The electrification project is viewed as a system, with risk
management as a sub-system of project management.
A case study is presented for a rural electrification project in KwaZulu-Natal that
has experienced design and operational problems. A risk system is identified from
work breakdown structure, and risk hierarchy framework is produced based on project
life cycle cost model. Risks are ranked in terms of their impact and probability. The
aim of the study is to understand the impact of each risk on general project risk, and
risk mitigation measures that should be taken to address those risks.
The research finishes by drawing a conclusion that electrification projects are
complex, risks are manageable, and systems thinking can be successfully used to
manage electrification project risks. Risk management must focus on the project as a
whole, including operation and maintenance, rather than focusing at individual project
stages.