Abstract
This paper examines the impact of different oil price benchmarks on the revenue profile
of OPEC countries from 1990 to 2024. While there are prior studies on this subject, most
of these studies adopted a symmetrical approach, overlooking the asymmetric effects of
price shocks on government revenues. Additionally, prior research often aggregates oil
price benchmarks, simplifying the complex dynamics influencing OPEC revenues. This
study fills these gaps by evaluating both symmetrical and asymmetrical responses of the
revenue profiles of OPEC countries to major global oil price benchmarks—NYMEX WTI,
ICE Brent, DME Oman, and the OPEC reference basket. The study employs linear and
nonlinear panel (ARDL) models on annual data from 1990 to 2024. The linear ARDL results
indicate that government revenues respond positively to ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI
and OPEC spot prices but negatively to DME Oman prices. The nonlinear ARDL model
reveals asymmetric responses: revenue is more sensitive to negative shocks in ICE Brent
and OPEC prices, while DME Oman price increases reduce revenues. Notably, NYMEX
WTI fluctuations have minimal impact. The main conclusion of the paper is that OPEC’s
fiscal stability is highly vulnerable to asymmetric, long-run oil price shocks. The study
recommends policymakers adopt benchmark-specific fiscal hedging strategies, such as
put options, and strategically diversify export markets to mitigate risk.