Abstract
Orientation: In early 2020, South Africa was noticeably impacted by COVID-19 and placed under a series of 'national lockdown' with the concomitant negative effect on the economy. Restaurants, museums, art galleries and cultural centres were closed to the public. The consequent social distancing, economic restrictions and demand shifts are expected to shutter many businesses within the arts, culture and recreation sector – an important contributor to the South African economy. Research purpose and approach: This article examines the possible impact of COVID-19 on employment within the arts, culture and recreation sector by modelling the interrelationship between several variables. Main findings: A range of models are developed and analysed which explore the changing impact of COVID-19 on the cultural sector of South Africa. The first set of models map the relationships between the arts and culture industries as defined by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO) and the South African Cultural Observatory (SACO). These industries are estimated to have an impact on employment within the recreational, sporting and cultural sector of South Africa. From this study, only a number of 'cultural areas' are shown to have a significant influence on job creation within the recreational, sporting and cultural sector of South Africa during this period. Comparative models, both pre and post COVID-19 are developed examining the most significant cultural (and traditional) industries to have an impact. These industries include the weaving, knitting and sales industries in arts and cultural goods. Using data derived from the Google