Abstract
Rapid urbanization and infrastructure expansion in Ghana have intensified demand for concrete, yet reliable, context-specific forecasting tools to support long-term infrastructure planning and resource management remain limited. Existing demand models are largely developed for advanced economies or focused on cement production rather than final concrete consumption, limiting the applicability to rapid urbanizing developing countries. This study addresses this gap by developing an integrated forecasting framework to quantify and project concrete demand in Ghana. Using time-series data spanning 2000-2025, the study employs a modelling approach that combines the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and Error Correction Model (ECM) to examine both short- and long-run relationships between concrete consumption and key macroeconomic indicators, including GDP, population, GDP growth, concrete prices, housing loan interest rates, lending rates, and exchange rates. Forecast results for 2025-2030 indicated a sustained upward trend in concrete consumption, increasing from 39,278.52 m3 in 2026 to 99,430.53 m3 in 2030, with an average annual growth rate of 26.3% and a mean projected demand of 67,730.83 m3. Model evaluation metrics demonstrated high predictive accuracy, confirming the robustness of the proposed framework. The study contributes to the literature on construction demand forecasting by providing a context-specific, empirically validated model of concrete consumption in a developing economy. The findings offer actionable insights for policymakers, urban planners, and construction managers, underscoring the need to proactively scale local production capacity, strengthen supply-chain logistics, and promote sustainable material sourcing to support infrastructure development.