Abstract
Comprehension of spatio-temporal groundwater recharge (GWR) under climate change is
imperative to enhance water resources availability and management. The main aim of this
study is to examine climate change’s effects on spatio-temporal GWR. This study was done
by ensembling five climate models and the physically-basedWetSpass-Mmodel to estimate
GWR during baseline (1986 to 2015), mid-term (2031 to 2060), and long-term (2071 to 2100)
periods for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. In
comparison to the Identification of unit Hydrographs and Component flows from Rainfall,
Evaporation, and Streamflow (IHACRES)’s baseflow and direct runoff with corresponding
WetSpass-M model outputs, the statistical indices showed good performance in simulating
water balance components. Projected future temperature and rainfall will likely increase
dramatically compared to the baseline period for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. In comparison to the
baseline period, the annual GWR had been projected to increase by 4.28 mm for RCP4.5
for the mid-term (MidT4.5), 15.27 mm for the long-term (LongT4.5), 2.38 mm for the midterm
(MidT8.5), and 13.11 mm for the long-term for RCP8.5 (LongT8.5), respectively. The
seasonal GWR findings showed an increasing pattern during winter and spring, whereas
it declined in autumn and summer. The mean monthly GWR for MidT4.5, LongT4.5,
MidT8.5, and LongT8.5 will increase by 0.34, 1.26, 0.18, and 1.07 mm, respectively. The
watershed’s downstream areas were receiving the lowest amount of GWR, and prone to
drought. Therefore, this study advocates and recommends that stakeholders participate
intensively in developing and implementing climate change resilience initiatives and water
resources management strategies to offset the detrimental effects in the downstream areas.