Abstract
Background: The governments of important tourist source markets imposed additional
travel restrictions (the Omicron restrictions) to South Africa (and neighbouring states) as a
result of the identification of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 in South Africa. These
restrictions interrupted and paused the recovery in international and regional passenger
traffic to and from South Africa and its neighbouring states.
Objectives: To determine the impact of Omicron-related air travel restrictions on passenger
demand, the number of flights operated (supply of services), average passenger loads carried
and salient tourism indicators.
Method: The study identifies the monthly number of passengers and flights operated before
and immediately following the imposition and lifting of Omicron-related travel restrictions.
The counterfactual, to determine the traffic and tourism recovery would have been had these
restrictions not been imposed is made by interpolation.
Results: Significant decreases in the annual number of passengers carried, flights operated
and the average loads of passengers were identified within two geographic areas, international
and regional traffic, on over-border flights affected by Omicron restrictions and the impact on
tourism and employment.
Conclusion: The Omicron restrictions interrupted the recovery trend that started to emerge
and caused a decline in passenger and tourism flows, tourism spending and employment.
Contribution: The study determines the impact of the Omicron restrictions on South Africa to
prevent rapid government overreaction where the causation of contagion is not objectively
demonstrated.