Abstract
Using a simple Bayesian ‘mixed effects’ hierarchical model we provide econometric estimates of annual 2020 employment losses for 15 SADC member states on the basis of historical GDP data and forecasts. Our mixed effects model consists of country-varying coefficients, as well as ‘fixed’ (pooled) coefficients. This allows us to fully explore variation between countries. The model provides estimates for losses in total employment, women employment, and ‘precarious’ employment. We find that roughly half of estimated SADC countries have total employment losses below or approaching 25% of all jobs, while the other half have total losses exceeding 25%. Around one-third of all jobs for women risk being lost during 2020 for Madagascar, Comoros, Angola, Botswana, Namibia, and South Africa. While the proportion of predicted precarious job losses from COVID-19 is above 50% for the majority of SADC countries implying large risks of hunger and increases in poverty rates.