Abstract
This study attempted to estimate the extent of the expansion of the area of Lake Basaka over the past 50 years (1960 to 2010), using LANDSAT images, field observations, local information and topographic maps. The analysis revealed that the lake has exhibited a dramatic expansion over the past five decades. An increase in the lake water level by 7.6 m over this period resulted in flooding about 45.8 km2 of surrounding areas and an incremental lake volume of about 280 Mm3. About 70% of the lake expansion was observed in the period between the 1970s and 1990s. This phenomenon coincides with the periods of remarkable land use ⁄ cover changes in the region. Furthermore, the beginning of the lake expansion coincided with the introduction of irrigated agriculture in the region, and construction of Koka Dam in the mid-1960s in the upper Awash River Basin. This study suggests that the observed expansion trend, if it continues unabated, could result in certain socio-economic and environmental consequences in the region in particular, and to Ethiopia in general. Groundwater inundation or salty water intrusion, for example, might occur in the area in the near future, thereby affecting the sustainability of regional irrigated agriculture. The lake has the potential to inundate the surrounding region (Matahara Sugar Estate; towns of Fantalle and Matahara) and might connect with the Awash River during the next 10–15 years. This would affect downstream irrigation developments in the Awash Basin and the livelihoods of people that depend on the basin’s water resources. The overall findings of this study emphasize the need to adopt mitigation measures before the lake expansion results in irreversible damage to the region or the basin.