Abstract
A model is proposed based on the statistical concept of the overlapping distribution method (ODM). The model is then applied to estimate the number of students that can be expected to qualify for and to pass supplementary examinations. The ODM prediction model was validated using 19 sets of examination events involving 858 civil engineering students in two different universities. It was found that lowering the mark cut - off criteria from 45 to 40%, increases the number of students that qualify for supplementary examinations, by up to 75%. In turn, the number of students that successfully sit for supplementary examinations, increases by about 40%. The proposed model promises to be useful in informing policy on conflicting issues that arise from balancing the work load under large class sizes on one hand, and offering wider opportunity to as many students as have the potential to pass.