Abstract
Purpose of the study: This study explores the efficacy of integrating demand forecasting and risk management strategies to optimise and ensure continuity of the food supply chain during supply disruptions. This study highlights the role of demand forecasting and risk management strategies in the business, how these strategies are used to navigate supply shocks, and how they are integrated into the business. It also explores best practices for integrating these strategies. The study aims to provide food supply chain managers with practical insights on how to optimise the food supply chain by assessing the advantages, challenges, and optimal approaches associated with integration.Design/methodology/approach: A qualitative research methodology was followed, and purposive sampling was used to select participants. Data were collected through audio-recorded interviews, which were transcribed, and then a thematic analysis was applied to the data. Atlas.ti was utilised to enhance and visualise the qualitative data analysis. Findings: The findings of this study result in a framework which outlines critical components and interrelationships involved in the successful integration of demand forecasting and risk management strategies. It includes aspects of collaboration, communication, information sharing and well-documented processes, facilitated through an optimised Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) process. A governance framework adds a layer of validation and consistency to these processes. A long-term view and technology investments enhance risk assessment and mitigation efforts. Recommendations/value: The study presents a versatile framework for integrating demand forecasting and risk management processes, with potential applications across various industries. This research offers immediate practical benefits to the FMCG sector and has the potential to shape the future of demand forecasting and risk management integration across different industries.Managerial implications: The framework provides a benchmark and key insights that businesses can use to identify critical areas for focus within existing processes.