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Traffic flow models : A comparative study between mathematical and data-driven models
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Traffic flow models : A comparative study between mathematical and data-driven models

Anele Portia Ngcongo
Master of Science (MSc), University of Johannesburg
2025
Handle:
https://hdl.handle.net/10210/520064

Abstract

Traffic congestion remains the biggest challenge in modern cities, influencing travel time, fuel consumption and air quality. Understanding and forecasting traffic behavior and patterns is a crucial element of transportation planning. This dissertation explores two different but complementary approaches to model traffic flow: traditional mathematical models based on diffusion equations, and modern data-driven models using Physics- Informed Neural Networks (PINNs). By embedding the diffusion equation during the training process, PINNs offer a powerful tool that can handle noisy or incomplete traffic data, making them especially useful in real-world applications. The observed historical data, diffusion equation, and boundary conditions were used to train PINNs. The experimental findings demonstrate that important traffic dynamics can be captured by both PINNs and the classical diffusion model. This shows that combining mathematical understanding with machine learning techniques can lead to more accurate and practical traffic flow models, paving the way for smarter transport systems in the future. The strong performance of PINNs prediction output, especially during afternoon peak hours confirms that such a model is not only mathematically sound but also operationally relevant. The study’s accuracy is evaluated using the standard error metrics: mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). The error values for the test set are MSE= 0.0089, RMSE= 0.3943, MAE = 0.2766 and R2 = 0.8153. Furthermore, the model shows low MSE on the test set (0.0089) compared to the validation set (0.1054), indicating good predictive accuracy on the sampled Mondays. This research laid a basic foundation for hybrid modeling, focusing on one-dimensional traffic flow using diffusion based of partial differential equations (PDEs). Future research should consider expanding both the scope and depth of the hybrid model, such as multilane, feeding the model with live sensor or GPS data, incorporating additional real-world factors such as weather conditions, traffic incidents. The expansion could result in more valuable real-time traffic management systems.
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