Abstract
M.Phil. (Economics)
There has been increasing focus on banking system stability worldwide, particularly due to the recent financial crisis experienced and the resultant adverse economic effects. In the case of a developing country like South Africa (SA), the stability of the banking system is even more important as it is crucial for the achievement of the country’s development goals. Credit extension is also a core component for facilitating economic and social development in the country. The downside risk attached to credit extension is that once it reaches a point of being excessive it can have a destabilising effect on the banking system and the economy. SA has experienced a rapid increase in credit extension since 2001, which prompted the implementation of the National Credit Act (NCA), with the intention of regulating the credit industry and improving the practices therein. More recently, further concerns have been raised by regulatory authorities around the possibility of an asset bubble in the SA economy as a result of the level of unsecured credit extended in the country.
The objective of this study therefore is to investigate the impact of the NCA on risk, both credit and systemic, in the banking system. This is important, as investigating and understanding the impact of credit controls, like the NCA, on risk in the banking system is critical to supporting the SA development agenda. The findings of this study show that the NCA has been successful in reducing credit risk in the banking system, even though this was by default and not through the stated intention of the Act. This was achieved through the introduction of the affordability requirement into the credit assessment process. This study highlights however, that there are still areas of improvement which can be made to the NCA to increase its effectiveness in preventing excessive credit extension.