Abstract
This study examines the impact of industrialisation on the environment across Africa between 2000 and 2023, drawing on data from 52 countries. To measure environmental impact, carbon dioxide (CO₂) are used as the key indicator, while industrialisation is represented by the share of manufacturing value added in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The analysis is grounded in established theoretical frameworks, including the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) and Pollution Haven/Halo hypotheses. A range of econometric techniques, pooled OLS, random effects (RE), fixed effects (FE), general least squares (GLS), and least squares dummy variable (LSDV) models, are employed to ensure robust findings. To deepen the analysis, the study also examines variations across different income groups and regions within Africa. The results reveal a clear and significant link: as industrialisation increases, so do carbon emissions. This finding highlights the carbon-intensive nature of manufacturing activities on the continent and underscores the environmental costs associated with industrial growth. Renewable energy consumption consistently reduces emissions, implying the urgent need for African countries to accelerate investments in renewable energy sources. The main results validated the presence of the EKC, but it is heterogeneous at a disaggregated level: it is absent in lower-middle-income economies, present in low-income and upper-middle-income groups, and region-specific and inverted U-shaped in West and North Africa, while U-shaped in Southern Africa. Trade openness tends to raise emissions in lower-income contexts, but is associated with reductions where institutions and technology adoption are stronger. FDI generally reduces carbon emissions. Urbanisation is associated with higher carbon emissions, reflecting the rapid and inefficient energy consumption in urban areas. Robustness checks using total CO₂ (in millions of tonnes, Mt), rather than per-capita emissions, confirm the main findings. A pre- and post-COVID comparison indicates a weakened industrialisation–emissions link prior to 2020 and a rebound post COVID-19 pandemic. The study contributes a continent-wide, disaggregated, and methodologically robust assessment of Africa’s industrialisation–environment nexus. To ensure that Africa’s industrial transformation supports both economic growth and environmental sustainability, several key policy actions are essential. First, accelerating the deployment of clean energy sources, such as solar, wind, and geothermal, can help decouple industrial expansion from carbon emissions.