Abstract
M.Phil.
The problem that exists in the developing areas of the Northern Cape area of Eskom (and also in all other developing areas in South Africa), is to make the correct decisions in terms of electrification, marketing and sales of electricity and electrical appliances when electrifying these areas. This study investigates this problem. The results from field work before and after electrification and recommendations form the main part of the study. The main methods followed for this study were as follows: Previous pre-electrification studies over a period of roughly six years in 82 developing areas were aggregated into 33 tables with maximums, minimums and averages calculated, including compiling 52 graphs. This process took the best part of one year. This gives an in-depth combined view of energy - and socioeconomic aspects particular to the Northern Cape. A needs analysis was also done amongst role players inside and outside Eskom, inter alia the management of Eskom, municipalities, Rand Afrikaans University, electrical contractors and district councils. The most important needs were investigated during field work done for this study in 1994. Data processing in dBase and Microsoft Excel and statistical analysis in Statgraphics was done, and the findings were taken up in four internal before/after publications during 1995 and 1996 and finally, in this study. It provides a clearer insight into electrification -, socio economic and health aspects in the developing areas of Northern Cape before and after electrification. Electrification in developing areas in Angola, Zambia and Zimbabwe is uneconomical and in many cases has just about come to a standstill. Electrification in Namibia and Botswana is progressing slowly, at a cautious economic pace. Amongst the most important findings (in another 29 tables and another 58 graphs) for the Northern Cape area of Eskom are:
The number of prepaid customers in the developing areas grew from less than 100 in 1989 to more than 38 000 in 1996, an increase of more than 20 000%.
At this stage these customers of Eskom consume 4.148 GWh of electricity p.m., the equivalent of about 4 148 big households, each consuming 1 000 kWh (units) of electricity. This translates to only 109.16 kWh (Eskom ±70 kWh nationally)per customer p.m., which is not even nearly economical to Eskom. It must be remembered that it took 20 years in Ireland for electrification programmes to become economically viable. The target of Eskom in South Africa vary from 350 kWh to 572 kWh p.m., the latter which can only be achieved by "second phase" electricity consumption, i.e. by using heavy appliances such as geysers as well. When the developing areas have been fully electrified, total electricity demand in South Africa could increase by 7.4%, which could cause the building of another 1.26 big power stations. After electrification, there was a statistically significant reduction in the monthly average spending on wood and coal in
the developing areas of Northern Cape. The electrical appliances mostly in use (after electrification) are irons, kettles and TV's. After electrification there was a statistically significant increase in the percentage of the maximum average "marketing potential" of appliances. The electrical appliances that most residents still want to buy after electrification, are washing machines, fridges and geysers. After electrification, only 68.63% of kettles are electrical types (on average). Nearly all electrical appliances are used during the peak hours of Eskom. The maximum amount that residents are prepared to spend on electricity, is R75.89 p.m., compared to R53.64 p.m. before electrification. The recalculated total average spending on energy (excluding petrol and diesel) is R91.72 per month before electrification and R121.21 p.m. after electrification. The average level of education is between standard 5 and 6 compared to between standard 3 and 4 before electrification (this is also statistically significant). The average income of households is R943.89 p.m.,compared to R507.59 p.m. before electrification. The average number of people per household is the following (pre-electrification figures in brackets): men 1.05 (0.96), women 1.21 (1.17) and children 3.26 (2.98). The total number of people per household is 5.51 (5.11). Most residents are very satisfied with health services in their areas. The biggest group (on average 95.30%) in the electrified developing areas of Northern Cape make use of modern medicine. The next biggest group (on average 4.7%) make use of modern medicine and traditional healers.