Abstract
M.Tech.
In life extending and refurbishing old power station plant, the
following question must be addressed: Does one maintain current
configuration, which was based on the technology of 1960, or make
use of current power utility technology trends, and change the
power station's configuration.
This specific problem involves four existing Eskom power
stations, with an approximate combined replacement value of R7
billion. All these stations have the capability of using a
common steam feed range to supply superheated steam to the
turbo-generator sets. This common steam feed range becomes very
maintenance intensive in its "old age". Hence the need for this
study into the feasibility of its refurbishment. This common
steam feed range configuration was considered state-of-the-art in
the mid-1900's, but is currently not the practised technology.
This is primarily due to the technology advancement into reheat
boilers, making control of a range type configuration impossible.
Monte Carlo simulation provides an effective, holistic decision
mechanism, that is free from bias, emotions and conjecture.
Hence the simulation product, highlighted in this dissertation,
will have solved an industrial problem finally and effectively,
by ensuring that for a relatively small cost of building the
simulation models, major capital expenditure estimates can be
accurate, with a confidence in the return on investment.
This paper discusses the use of Monte Carlo simulation modelling
as an engineering analysis tool, for the analysis of two power
station configuration options, i.e. with a steam feed range and
without.
Firstly, an investigation into the selection of which computer
language to use as a development tool is presented. The Monte
Carlo simulation technique is then explained, and simulation
models are built of the two power station configurations. The
models, which are built using SIMSCRIPT 11.5 simulation language
to represent the real world in each configuration option, are
then discussed. The availability analysis is developed, and
conclusions and recommendations are discussed, as presented in
the report to Eskom Management.