Abstract
The chemical industry in South Africa plays a crucial role in the nation's economy, contributing 3% to the GDP and 22% to manufacturing. Nevertheless, the extensive use of fossil fuels has led to significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, accounting for 13% of the country's total emissions. This research utilises the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) model to investigate decarbonisation options. This study highlights the industry's substantial greenhouse gas output and the obstacles it encounters in reducing emissions due to its energy-intensive nature and the lack of feasible alternatives or technologies. Moreover, this study examined global chemical production and its impact on CO2 emissions, stressing the necessity for cutting-edge technologies to diminish the sector's carbon footprint. The study also presented forecasts for energy consumption in chemical manufacturing, emphasising the difficulties of decarbonisation. The primary findings indicate that under a business-as-usual scenario, energy demand is expected to rise by 81% from 2019 to 2030, with coal, natural gas, and electricity constituting 84% of the projected increase. The study also discovered that current policy frameworks have minimal effect on decarbonisation and that low-carbon technologies such as renewable energy, energy efficiency, and carbon capture are vital for reducing emissions. Furthermore, the research proposed decarbonisation strategies to facilitate the industry's shift towards renewable energy sources, implement energy efficiency measures, and adopt advanced technologies (including Carbon Capture and Storage, Electrochemical, Membrane and Green Hydrogen technologies) to achieve substantial decarbonisation of the chemical sector. Finally, the study advocated for a thorough policy review, implementation of emission reduction strategies, and incorporation of climate change considerations into energy planning.