Abstract
M.Phil. (Economics)
The study of certain minerals and their relationship to economic
indicators requires not only research to establish the economic
significance of these commodities, but also the use of statistical
techniques to place the data in context by analogy with cyclical
events and changing economic circumstances. It is inevitable that
a great deal of information will be generated, and that extensive
use must be made of the computer throughout the work.
The approach used involves the extensive use of graphical and
statistical methods to demonstrate the market relationships with
time and with selected economic indicators, of six non-ferrous
minerals, lead, nickel, tin, copper, aluminium and zinc. These
minerals were selected because they represent a good cross-section
of the metals that find wide applications in industry, and are
economically important.
Comparative analyses are made of South Africa as a major producer
and exporter of minerals, and of this country's main trading
partners, West Germany, Japan and the USA, the major consumers and
importers of minerals in the Western World.
The statistical information for this study covers a 30 year
period, namely 1953 to 1982, and is examined on the premise that
general economic variables are causal factors in determining the
cyclical behaviour of the market for minerals. Therefore it is
obligatory to first examine and explain the nature of business and
market cycles and events in the Republic of South Africa, the USA,
West Germany, and Japan, and then to relate these to the supply
and consumption of the minerals concerned. The relationships between production of minerals for use as raw materials, the production of refined mineral products and the
consumption, prices, and stocks of these commodities are explored,
and the behaviour of these parameters is explained by reference to
familiar and well-used economic indicators such as the Gross
National Product (GNP) and the Consumer Price Index(CPI).
Subtleties in the relationships between the selected minerals and
economic indicators are presented. Two.. fundamental approaches,
graphical and statistical, are used in the formal analysis of the
problem of quantifcation of the significance of minerals as
economic indicators. Simultaneous enhancement, both graphically
and statistically, between the parameters has important
implications regarding the conclusions drawn in this thesis.
A central issue is the statistical evaluation of all the possible
combinations of the selected minerals and economic indicators,
based on correlation coefficients. Promising results are
classified on the basis of high levels of correlation between the
various parameters. The consistency with which a mineral achieves
high correlation coefficients is defined by a scoring system,
whereby sequences of correlation coefficient values are totalled
and averaged.
Cause and effect cannot simply be assumed, nor can it be proved by
statistics. However, statistical verification procedures provide
a great deal of assistance in the interpretation of correlation
coefficients. The results obtained from the statistical analysis show that some
mineral commodities are more closely linked to overall economic
conditions than others. These are aluminium, copper and lead...