Abstract
Transport infrastructure has emerged as a critical focus within the national policy frameworks of many developing countries, particularly in South Africa. Therefore, the economic efficiency of both the country and its transport infrastructure is fundamental to the overall contribution of the annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Nonetheless, the proportionate contribution of transport infrastructure to the GDP of South Africa has declined over the years due to persistent challenges including elevated unemployment rates, widespread poverty, socio-economic inequality, deteriorating infrastructure conditions, and rising expenditures associated with the transport sector.
The National Planning Commission (NPC), in 2012, launched a comprehensive long-term strategy known as the National Development Plan: Vision 2030 (NDP), which put forward targets that need to be attained from 2012 to 2030. The NDP was implemented to attain the objectives of the South African government, which include fostering economic growth, addressing the threefold challenges of unemployment, poverty and inequality, and improving the provision of economic infrastructure, most notably transport infrastructure. Specifically, the government targets an annual economic growth rate of 5.4% through transport infrastructure development by 2030. Nevertheless, between 2012 and 2019, the economy was constrained within a low-growth trap, with the GDP expanding at a modest rate of only 1.3% per year.
Additionally, in alignment with the NDP for transport infrastructure investment, the government also aims to attain an overall investment-to-GDP ratio of 30%, with roughly one-third of this, approximately 10%, anticipated to be financed by the public sector. However, the average gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) as a percentage of GDP between 2012 and 2018 was 19.6%, primarily attributed to declining private sector investment, decelerated government expenditure, and reduced capital allocations by State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs). This downward trend continued from 2018 to 2021, with investments averaging 14.7% of GDP. In 2021, private sector contributions accounted for 9.9% of GDP, whereas public sector investment was 4.1%. Despite a modest 3.7% increase in the GFCF in 2022, these investment levels remain substantially below the targets set forth by the NDP.
The primary objective of this research was to monitor the progress made towards achieving the transport infrastructure targets set by the NDP and propose strategies...