Abstract
This research investigates comprehensive strategies for decarbonizing South Africa's electricity sector, addressing the pressing demand for sustainable energy solutions in a nation significantly dependent on coal, which constituted 77% of its electricity generation in 2022. By employing the Open-Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS), this study simulates an array of decarbonization scenarios spanning from 2019 to 2050, with a particular emphasis on the incorporation of renewable energy sources, including solar, wind, and biomass.
The analysis indicates that a methodical transition toward a diversified energy portfolio could result in a substantial reduction of carbon emissions, with estimates suggesting a decrease of up to 42% by 2025. This outcome is in alignment with South Africa’s commitments under various international climate accords, such as the Paris Agreement, which aims to mitigate the effects of climate change. The study underscores the critical need for the integration of technological innovations, economic reforms, and policy adjustments to support this transition.
To evaluate the model's robustness, sensitivity analysis demonstrated a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.89, reflecting a high degree of predictive accuracy across different scenarios. This level of reliability highlights the model's potential utility in guiding energy policy and investment strategies.
Additionally, the research underscores the socio-economic ramifications associated with the transition to a low-carbon energy system. The findings suggest that the shift toward renewable energy could generate approximately 50,000 jobs within the sector by 2030, thereby fostering economic growth and addressing unemployment issues in a region where job creation is essential.
In summary, this study offers actionable insights into effective pathways for decarbonization, emphasizing the necessity for a comprehensive approach that harmonizes environmental sustainability with economic viability and social equity. The research not only enriches the academic dialogue surrounding energy transitions but also serves as a practical reference for policymakers striving to realize a sustainable energy future for South Africaa.