Abstract
M.Tech
This study is an investigation into current local and international fashion forecasting
approaches and procedures, as well as to discover whether intuition has relevance in the
forecasting process. South African fashion is currently in the process of transformation;
discovering and establishing a fashion identity, after decades of unquestioningly following
international fashion trends (Chang, 2005:20; Cohen, 2005:27; Levin, 2005a: 75-78). The
emergence of local fashion/trend forecasting practices in recent years is part of this
transformation process. An underlying assumption of this study is that South African fashion
will continue to develop, resulting in an increasing demand for fashion forecasting in the
country. As there are currently no guidelines available, the study aims to provide insight into
a way forward for this practice in South Africa.
The study is grounded within a qualitative research paradigm, and the research design and
data collection methods have accordingly been selected. The chosen research design falls
largely within the framework of an ethnographic study. A comprehensive analysis of existing
literature was conducted in order to provide a theoretical grounding to the study and to
acquire a global perspective on forecasting procedures. This was followed by semi-structured
interviews to obtain primary data from a South African perspective. The participants were
purposely selected according to set criteria. The first criteria for selection required the
participants to be leading role-players in their particular fields. Secondly, individuals who are
trend forecasters by profession, as well as those who may use forecasting material in their
businesses. Thirdly, the sample of participants represents specified sectors within the South
African fashion/lifestyle industries. Namely, editors at leading trend magazines, in-house
trend forecasters/analysts at leading fashion retailers, designers and independent trend
analysts/forecasters. In order to construct the findings of the study qualitative content
analysis was used as the method for data analysis. Through this process, the descriptions of
the participants were interpreted to establish commonalities in practice, so as to identify
viable threads of relevance regarding trend forecasting within a South African context.
The research findings narrate the participants’ experiences within the field of trend/fashion
forecasting, their knowledge frameworks being key to the study (Henning, van Rensburg &
Smit, 2004:19). It is evident from the findings that the practice of fashion forecasting in
South Africa is at an early stage of development and therefore at present, limited procedural
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structures seem to be in place. The findings further indicate that intuition indeed plays a
significant role in the forecasting process, and is often associated with insightful trend/fashion
forecasting. South African fashion, although facing several challenges, is perceived to have
enormous potential for growth and to be a successful international marketing commodity in
the future. In order for the practice of fashion forecasting to be successful in the country,
though, it needs to be approached with insight and integrity, and with a true intention to add
value.