Abstract
study explores the efficacy of integrating demand forecasting and risk management
strategies to optimise and ensure the continuity of the food supply chain during supply
disruptions. This study highlights the role of demand forecast and risk management
strategies in the business, how these strategies are used to navigate supply shocks, how
these strategies are integrated into the business and explore best practices for the
integration of the strategies. The study seeks to provide food supply chain managers with
practical insights on how to optimise the food supply chain by assessing the advantages,
difficulties, and optimal approaches linked with integration.
A qualitative research methodology was followed, and purposive sampling was used to
select participants. Data was collected through audio-recorded interviews which were
transcribed and then thematic analysis was applied to the data. Atlas.ti was utilised to
enhance and visualise the qualitative data analysis.
The findings of this study result in a framework which outlines critical components and
interrelationships involved in the successful integration of demand forecasting and risk
management strategies. It includes aspects of collaboration, communication, information
sharing and well-documented processes, facilitated through an optimised S&OP process.
A governance framework adds a layer of validation and consistency to these processes.
Long-term view and technology investments enhancing risk assessment and mitigation
efforts.
The study introduces a versatile framework for integrating demand forecasting and risk
management processes, with the potential for broader application across industries. This
research offers immediate practical benefits to the FMCG sector and has the potential to
shape the future of demand forecasting and risk management integration across different
industries. The framework offers a benchmark and key insights that businesses can use
to identify critical areas on which to focus within existing processes.
Key Words
business continuity; demand forecasting; FMCG; forecast accuracy; risk management;
S&OP; supply chain disruptions