Abstract
M.Comm.
The aim of this study is to examine the appropriateness of inflation targeting as the future monetary policy strategy of South Africa. In keeping with international trends, South Africa needs to recognise the changing financial environment in which the Reserve Bank must now operate. The purpose of this study is to show whether South Africa's economic environment and the SARB as the monetary authorities, are indeed ready for implementing inflation targeting in South Africa. Given the limited experience with inflation targeting, the theoretical analysis has formed the foundation that has shaped and influenced the thinking on this strategy monetary policy. The rationale for price stability as the long-term goal of monetary policy is pivotal to all the strategies for controlling inflation: exchange rate pegging; monetary targeting; nominal GDP targeting; the "Just Do It" policy; and lastly, inflation targeting. This study examines the key features and concepts of inflation targeting in order to determine their relevance in a framework for South Africa. Transparency and accountability are central to the inflation-targeting regime and depend largely on the independence of the central bank. It is important to establish the credibility and flexibility of the inflation-targeting framework through frequent communication and
by ensuring the accountability of the central bank to the government and the public.
Policymakers are faced with many issues and choices when designing the inflation targeting strategy and the potential benefits of the framework will depend on how effectively the strategy is formulated and implemented. It is vital that the design of the strategy attempt to effectively balance both the transparency and the flexibility of the framework. Once we have the theoretical basis we do a detailed analysis of the international experience with inflation targeting. The 1990's saw a number of countries
adopting explicit inflation targets as the goal of monetary policy: New Zealand, Canada, the United Kingdom, Sweden, Australia, Finland, Israel, Spain and the Czech Republic. Each country had its own challenges and issues with designing the inflation-targeting framework. We draw on the lessons from the international experience to assess the applicability of inflation targeting for South Africa. After looking at a brief history of South African monetary policy we consider whether the institutional framework in South Africa is appropriate for effectively implementing inflation targeting. We also take a look at the issues of design and implementation that are relevant to the South African situation while considering the central question of whether South Africa is indeed ready for inflation targeting. Finally, we show that the success of an inflation-targeting framework in South
Africa will depend on the ability of the Reserve Bank to ensure the transparency of
monetary policy and the reliability of the inflation forecasts. At the same time, the
credibility of the inflation-targeting regime will depend, not only on a political commitment by the government, but also on the unfailing support of the labour market and the general public. Thus, the biggest challenge facing the Reserve Bank is to prepare itself and the South African market for the new age of direct inflation targeting as an anchor for monetary policy.