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An explainable machine learning approach to credit scoring
Thesis   Open access

An explainable machine learning approach to credit scoring

Siphokazi Nkosi
Master of Applied Data Science, University of Johannesburg
2025
Handle:
https://hdl.handle.net/10210/517449

Abstract

Credit scoring systems - Data processing
Financial institutions use credit scoring to assess loan applicants’ creditworthiness; this is a critical component of their decision-making processes. This study addresses the challenge of black-box models in credit scoring by applying explainable artificial intelligence techniques to enhance transparency. To achieve this, machine learning models such as logistic regression, random forest and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) were developed and evaluated for creditworthiness prediction. Additionally, the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) and local interpretable model-agnostic explanations (LIME) models were used to enhance model interpretability by identifying key features influencing predictions. The XGBoost (accuracy 84%) and random forest (accuracy 85%) models outperformed logistic regression (74%) in predictive accuracy. Features such as credit history and the presence of a bank account were highlighted as influential in specific low-risk predictions. The interpretability offered by SHAP mitigates the black-box nature of artificial intelligence, fostering trust in credit scoring.
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