Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic emerged as a destructive phenomenon, laying waste to both health and economic prosperity. Its impact was felt in different economic sectors, with varying degrees of effect, including the commercial property sector. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, commercial property in South Africa and the world had already been characterised by sluggish growth and lacklustre financial performance. Existing studies on the intersection between the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic performance of commercial properties have primarily focused on examining isolated determinants of performance, such as macroeconomic trends or occupancy rates, rather than a more expansive focus that integrates financial and structural determinants of performance into a unified model. Few analyses have assessed simultaneous effects on Tobin’s Q, total returns, and dividend yield. Furthermore, limited attention has been given to how post-COVID-19 strategic repositioning interacts with financial resilience to influence recovery. The objectives of this study were to jointly examine financial distress (Altman Z-score), interest coverage, and reinvestment rates as determinants of Tobin’s Q, dividend yield, and the D/E ratio of the South African Johannesburg Securities Exchange-listed (JSE) property companies. It also aimed to identify the internal mechanisms that explain variations in recovery across the commercial property sector by providing post-COVID-19 performance evidence. To achieve the objectives of this study, a quantitative research design was adopted, using purposive sampling to collect financial data from a select group of property companies listed on the JSE between 2020 and 2024. The 32 selected companies represent the main commercial property segments, including retail, office, industrial, and diversified portfolios. A structured approach to data analysis was employed, beginning with descriptive statistics, followed by diagnostic tests such as correlation analysis, and finishing off with regression models. The findings indicate that company-level characteristics, such as size, exert a strong influence on financial performance. The results also indicate that financial distress and the reinvestment rate were the key factors influencing dividend yield among South African-listed commercial property companies. In analysing the impact of company-level characteristics on the D/E ratio, the findings indicated that financial distress and...