Abstract
M.Sc.
Biofuels have the potential to reduce a country’s dependence on imported oil, to
ensure diversity of energy sources, to increase the availability of renewable
energy sources and to address global environmental issues. In recognition of the
potential benefits of the production and use of biofuels, the Department of
Minerals and Energy released the Draft Biofuels Industrial Strategy in December
2006 with the aim to increase the use of biofuels in South Africa to replace 4.5%
of conventional transport fuels by 2013.
However, there are several barriers that need to be overcome before South
Africa can establish a large-scale biofuel industry to achieve the DME’s biofuel
target. This includes environmental barriers, such as the availability of land for
the cultivation of biofuel feedstocks and potential threats to food security. This
study focuses on these environmental barriers and aims to determine the
potential for bioethanol production from maize in South Africa to 2013.
To this purpose, a bioethanol potential model is developed to simulate the
potential for bioethanol production from maize in South Africa between 2008 and
2013. The model incorporates four key elements that all impact on the availability
of maize for bioethanol production, namely: maize demand; maize supply; the
demand for maize as biomaterial; and the available land area for the cultivation
of maize.
The study makes further use of the scenario planning method to determine the
potential for bioethanol production from maize in South Africa. Four unique
bioethanol potential scenarios are designed and simulated within the bioethanol
potential model developed for this purpose. Each scenario plays out a differentstoryline for the future social, economic and natural environment that will impact
on the availability of maize for bioethanol production.
The results of the bioethanol potential scenario simulations show that South
Africa will be able to produce enough maize to meet the DME’s biofuel target of
1.2 billion liters of bioethanol for all scenarios between 2009 and 2010. From
2011 onwards, the bioethanol potential decreases below the DME’s target value
in both the worst case and rapid change scenarios.
The study concludes that the production of bioethanol from maize in South Africa
will have various social, economic and environmental consequences for the
country’s agricultural sector. The depletion of domestic maize supplies will
seriously threaten food security and consequently, increase the country’s
dependence on maize imports. This will not only affect the country’s maize
producing regions, but spread throughout South Africa as the demand for
agriculturally productive land for maize production increases. Domestic food
security is therefore at risk and South Africa will have to resort to other energy
technologies to achieve a sustainable and renewable energy future for road
transport.