Abstract
Concern over climate change has stimulated the transition from fossil fuels for power generation to renewable resources. A Geographical Information Science-based study is conducted to quantify the current and projected energy sprawl (land area used and required for energy generation) in South Africa by 2050 using five scenarios from the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2018. A suitability analysis is conducted to identify the most suitable areas for wind and solar developments in the designated Renewable Energy Development Zones (REDZs) and to evaluate the likely impact on biomes. Both the direct and indirect land required to produce a given amount of energy for each technology, termed land use intensity (LUI), is calculated. Various renewable power generators have higher LUI than non-renewables. For example, hydropower had a LUI of 691,23 km²/TWh in 2019 and is projected to have a LUI of 170,25 km²/TWh in 2050 whereas open cycle gas turbines (OC-GTs) have the highest LUI of non-renewable generation types with a LUI of 20,20 km²/TWh. A total land area of at least 1 567 km² (338 km² direct and 1 229 km² indirect) was impacted by energy infrastructure in South Africa in 2019. An additional 17 644 km² will be impacted by 2050, an area almost the size of Gauteng Province. The move towards renewables has triggered a major shift in the geographical location of power stations from the interior (particularly Mpumalanga) to coastal provinces (Northern Cape, Western Cape, and Eastern Cape). Of South Africa’s 1 220 813 km² land area, 36% (444 869 km²) is suitable for solar energy installations of which most of the suitable areas are located in the semi-arid interior of the country. 57% of South Africa’s land area is suitable for wind farms, with the southern and the southeastern regions of the country, as well as areas in the Free State close to the highlands of Lesotho, being the most suitable. Considering the areas found to be of excellent suitability within the REDZs, , Nama Karoo is the most at risk biome from solar power and wind power development with a total of 30 538 km² of its land area being at risk. Nama Karoo, however, is considered to be the best biome to locate solar parks and wind farms since it is an arid region dominated by low-lying vegetation and with minimal fauna and flora (Rutherford et al. 2006).
M.A. (Geography)