Abstract
The Boko Haram insurgency, which began in Borno State, in the north-eastern region of Nigeria in 2002 with the aim of overthrowing the Nigerian government and replacing it with a Caliphate system of government, later diffused its ideology and insurgency practice in the neighbouring states of Cameroon, Chad and Niger in the Lake Chad region, destroying lives and property, disrupting trade, and creating a massive humanitarian crisis and regional instability. To argue in this way, however, is to assume that every insurgency will diffuse in a region irrespective of whether there is an existing opportunity or not
The objective of this thesis is to understand how Boko Haram diffused its ideology and insurgency practice in the Lake Chad region and to examine the causes of the diffusion. Taking a qualitative approach based on in-depth interviews with key respondents and content analysis of key literature, this study applies the regional security complex theory and opportunity and willingness framework in analysing the diffusion of Boko Haram ideology and insurgency practice in the Lake Chad region.
The study finds that marginalisation, the spread of the Islam/Kanuri ethnic group, porous borders, the availability of Boko Haram sanctuaries, and the slow response by regional governments to combating Boko Haram provided the group with the opportunities to exploit and diffuse its ideology and insurgency practice in the Lake Chad region. The study reveals that if urgent and decisive steps are not taken by the regional governments in addressing the crisis, the conflict may create an even greater humanitarian crisis, destabilising the entire region and beyond. Hence, the study recommends that the Lake Chad regional governments must urgently pool their efforts and resources to address issues relating to marginalisation, climate change, porous borders, and poverty and unemployment in the region.
This study contributes to academic research by developing a utility model of RSC theory and analysis and suggests that this model can be replicated in other studies to analyse the diffusion of insurgency conflicts in a region.
D.Litt. et Phil.