Abstract
D.Phil
The prediction of the expected transmission network loads as required for transmission network power flow studies, has become very important and much more complex than ten to twenty years ago. Therefore a single forecast is no longer the answer to the problem.
The modelling of different long-term electrical forecasts makes it possible to compare a number of different forecasts. The modelling provides the further option that each expected load can be entered as a range and then the developed balancing algorithm checks for consensus (feasibility). If feasibility exists, then the different forecasts are reconciled (a feasible solution is determined). Factors such as international and national market trends, economical cycles, different weather patterns, climate cycles and demographic changes are studied. The factors that have significant impact on the transmission electrical loads are integrated in ten different forecasts. It thus gives more insight into the electrical industry and makes the forecast results more informative and therefore reduces the uncertainty in the future expected loads.