Abstract
D.Phil.
Despite a sharp decline in the birthrate, recent projections show
that the population groups in the RSA are still expected to grow
rapidly in the future. Since its inception in 1974, the National
Family Planning Programme has been very successful, and by 1980
more than a million women from all population groups were practising
contraception. Although the programme planners set as their
goal an annual increase in this figure, it was not clear what the
effect of a given increase would be on population growth in the
RSA.
In this study recent population projections for the RSA were used
as the point of departure, and it was established what the increased
family planning input would have to be if the prospect of
reduced population sizes were held out. Furthermore, it was assumed
in the models used that changes would take place over a period of
time in respect of the average period of use of contraceptives, and
that there would be a shift to more effective methods.
The TABRAP and PROJTARG models used for these analyses were extremely
suitable for experimentation so that an in-depth study of
the family planning situation of Asians, Coloureds and Blacks could
be made.
There are certain shortcomings in these models, however, and a new
model incorporating characteristics from both models was developed
to conduct projections up to the year 2010.