Abstract
Zambia’s electricity sector just like most SADC member states, is facing numerous challenges associated with energy security due to rapid energy demand growth and lower energy accessibility. This is mainly caused by lower grid coverage and high dependence on only one energy source (hydropower) which is affected by climatic patterns. For instance, hydropower is affected by climate change as evidenced in the recent years due to increased droughts. The drought has consequences on the power generated (caused partially by low level of water in the dams), and may have casacading effects on social and economical growth of the country. To offset the effects of low generated power (caused by drought) there is need to bring into play other form of renewable energy technologies. However, the country is still in its embryonic stages in harnessing its abundant RE resources due to compounding problems such as defective policy, institutional weakness, coordination, infrastructure, resources and competency. This research analysed and provided a detailed review of RE development in Zambia, the status of energy policies and the energy system security in Zambia. In particular, the main concern was to examine how policy affects the implementation and deployment of renewable energy in a country. In this research a closed loop and system dynamic model for Zambia sustainable renewable energy policy-ZASREP and solar photovoltaic deployment model was used. Also, steps were highlighted to reveal the dynamic factors between the energy policy formulation, system security and the deployment of RETs. By extension, the model could be used on SADC region and with a situational analysis for Zambia. Given the fact that the stocks and closed loops are country specific this model has the flexibility of being used for both developed and developing countries. Eleven (11) scenario options ranging from the current base case of high dependence on hydro power scenario to scenario policy 10 (P10) with alternative renewable energy were critically analysed. According to the results analysis, policy 9 (P9) in this model provides the most plausible RE policy target of the Zambia. In this policy (P9) the country should look at increasing the RETs share to 15% solar, 4% wind, 3% Biomass, 1% small hydro, 1% geothermal and 76% large hydro as a more realistic and achievable target of the RE sector by the year 2035 to achieve the required 10.4GW additional new capacity. It can also be concluded that the Policy 9 provides a system security for the country as the country would then turn to be a chief exporter of energy in the region and this would also lead to the country achieving electrification levels above 66% set target by the government and above 35% of SADC average electricity access level. Hence, according to studies
D.Phil. (Engineering Management)