Abstract
The thesis set out to determine whether the Liberal International Order will survive the 21st century considering the foreign policies of Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States (U.S.) since 1989. These are the most powerful states that have the responsibility of managing the liberal order. The thesis applies Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA) to diagnose the established behavioural patterns and attitudes of Britain, China, France, Russia and the U.S. towards the Liberal International Order. The key finding of the FPA chapter (Chapter 6) is that all five Great Powers have established a tendency of violating international law and the principles, values and institutions of the liberal order for their self-interests. The elevation of self-interests over collective interests makes the future of the Liberal International Order precarious. Scenario-building methodologies, as explicated in Chapter 3, guide the systematic and scientific construction of four possible scenarios (Chapter 6) regarding the future of the Liberal International Order. The key independent variables from which the scenarios are constructed include International Relations (IR) theoretical assumptions (Chapter 2), lessons from previous international orders (Chapter 4) and the post-1989 behavioural patterns of the five Great Powers vis-à-vis the liberal order (Chapter 5). Of the four scenarios proffered in Chapter 6, the thesis arrives at a final determination that the emerging Chinese order is likely to replace the Liberal International Order. This Chinese order has a possibility of becoming globalised in the short- to medium-term (2020-2050) should the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and the European Union (EU) continue to unsettle Russia. This dangerous interface between Russia and NATO/EU is likely to trigger a Great Power war between liberal Western states and a coalition of Russia, China and allies of these non-liberal Great Powers. The overarching determination of the thesis is that the Liberal International Order is unlikely to survive the 21st century. China’s emerging financial and economic order is touted as a glance into a future fully-fledged international order led by this East Asian hegemon. The thesis represents a forecasting paradigm that studies the interface between the collective international actions of Great Powers and the impact thereof on the future of international organisation, the latter concept referring to global political, cultural and economic governance.
D.Litt. et Phil. (Political Studies)