Abstract
Studies have shown that one of the regions in the world where farmers are expected to be highly
impacted by the negative effects of climate change is the Africa region. This is because agricultural
production is dependent on rainfall. As a result, farmers and food production systems are extremely
vulnerable to climate-related shocks. This thesis investigates the relationship between agriculture,
climate change and technical efficiency in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The thesis also attempts to
investigate the pathways through which climate change impacts agricultural total factor
productivity (TFP) growth. To this purpose, panel data is used to conduct cross-country empirical
analysis. More importantly, this study aims to add to the current body of knowledge by presenting
more rigorous techniques that could be useful to governments and policymakers. It is important to
note that to do so, the study is conducted in the form of three separate articles based on three
research questions. More precisely, the first article seeks to investigate whether public spending
on research and development (R&D) mitigates the negative effects of climate change on maize
and sorghum production in SSA. The second article examines how climate change impacts
technical efficiency in TFP growth in SSA, while the third article investigates the long- and shortrun
effects of climate change on TFP growth in SSA.
The study produced three major findings. First, the empirical findings suggest that climate change
and its interaction with R&D are strongly correlated with maize and sorghum production. As
expected, climate change is found to reduce the agricultural production of maize and sorghum.
However, the interaction of R&D with climate change enhances the agricultural production of
maize and sorghum. In addition, we found that R&D is an absorption channel for the detrimental
impacts of climate change, and that the way climate change affects the agricultural production of
maize and sorghum depends on the magnitude of spending on R&D. Second, the empirical
findings show that climate change has a positive effect on technical inefficiency in agricultural
production. Finally, we found that conventional productivity indices such as the Malmquist
Productivity Index (MPI) – that do not account for bad outputs – overestimate agricultural TFP
growth. However, indices such as the Malmquist-Luenberger productivity index (MLPI), which
does account for bad outputs, provides the closest estimates for characterising true agricultural
TFP growth in SSA. In addition, we find that there is a negative and statistically significant longvi
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run impact of climate change on agricultural TFP growth in 17 countries, while a positive effect is
found in 12 countries. In addition, while we find a unidirectional causal relationship between
climate change and agricultural TFP growth in five countries, there is also a unidirectional
relationship running from agricultural TFP growth to climate change in four countries.
Based on these findings, the study makes three key recommendations. First, the study argues that
in order to move from a negative to a positive impact of climate change on agricultural production,
spending on R&D should increase between 3.492 and 4.554 per cent. Thus, significant investment
in R&D is required. Second, the study argues that given that farmers with higher levels of
education are more responsive to the adoption of new technologies, policies geared toward
boosting education and school enrolment should be vigorously pursued in SSA. Finally, the study
argues that policymakers must make a conscious effort to reduce the susceptibility to rainfall
fluctuations of the agricultural sector in SSA. These strategies may involve the use of agricultural
practices that maximise water efficiency, and the construction of more and better irrigation
systems.
Keywords: Agriculture, Climate Change, Research and Development, Sub-Saharan Africa,
Technical Efficiency, Total Factor Productivity, Malmquist-Luenberger Productivity Index.