Abstract
ABSTRACT
Purpose
Most developing and emerging economies have a dilemma. On the one hand, there is intense global political and social pressure to limit their emissions of Carbon and Greenhouse House Gases (GHG); on the other hand, they are faced with high unemployment and high levels of poverty. Every country needs to assess its economic and social needs. Energy is a critical driver for meeting these objectives. Hence this thesis critically assesses these needs using South Africa as its example.
Approach
Several critical steps must be followed in such an assessment. The direction of climate change is based on scientific facts about the short-, medium- and long-term natural cycles. Natural climate change and the impact on climate and weather of energy generation globally and in the region must be evaluated.
The impact of electricity generation is based on different energy sources after considering the backup required and any proven technical improvement to mitigate their impact and damage to the environment, climate and weather.
The energy sources available in the country, in this case, South Africa and the region where the electricity generation will be delivered.
The significant requirements in terms of electricity are usage to meet its economic growth and the social benefits of the country or region. These primary needs must be carefully examined and analysed, including the actual economic cost of dispatchable electric generation, supply and delivery. This analysis must include the generation supply and delivery of the electricity generated, the total backup cost, the economic cost, and the long-term impact.
Findings
The research found that there was substantial evidence available from acknowledged experts and global experts that Anthropogenic Global Warming caused by fossil fuels was not an existential threat to humanity. Furthermore, it was likely to be highly expensive and slow economic growth and social development in countries such as South Africa. It would significantly set the country back in its primary objectives, reducing inequality, unemployment and poverty. The only successful way forward is by achieving high levels of economic growth and ensuring that policies spread these benefits across the population so that poor people benefit from the higher economic growth generated.
Research Limitations
The subject of climate change, the economic and social development needs of an economy, the specific needs of its citizens, the energy resources available, their cost and their environmental impacts and externalities are enormous. Many of these, mainly for newer technologies, particularly wind and solar, have not yet been adequately researched. A study of Sustainable Development Goals is therefore not possible in this thesis. In addition, the study has had to be FINAL F1
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limited to the sources of energy available in South Africa, namely solar, wind, coal, nuclear and potentially gas. These are significant sources of energy under discussion in the country at present. In addition, potential future cost improvements, efficiency and technical developments have not been considered as these are likely in all the technical fields with new development all possible.
Practical Contribution
The thesis has shown that emerging and developing economies rich in fossil fuels, such as South Africa, should use their cheapest natural resources to gain a comparative economic and competitive advantage. The thesis evaluates the significant elements and factors that assist in making such a decision. The queries have been answered; the hypothesis is that in South Africa's case, the primary energy resource that should be used is its coal and coal reserves. South Africa also has substantial quantities of uranium. Because of these uranium reserves, nuclear power generation should also be a significant energy source if it can be financially and economically cost-competitive. This thesis has proved this to be the case, mainly if one follows a guideline nuclear at the coast and High-Efficiency Low-Emissions (HELE) “clean coal” inland. The thesis emphasises the requirement for reliable, secure power at the lowest economic cost. All other energy sources are for backup purposes or to fulfil specialist regional or business needs at this economic and technological development stage.
Originality and Value
The thesis is a unique study. It has examined the research of all the critical components necessary to make a reasoned and factual choice of the best and most economical method of selecting the correct energy mix. It has developed a practical model to examine the cost of extracting and delivering each energy source, including long-term costs and the economic costs of lost production. It will permit government energy planners and industry to evaluate alternative energy sources and their supply allowing a region or country to maximise its economic growth to reduce inequality, unemployment and poverty. These are the three essential requirements for improving living standards and achieving social equilibrium.