Abstract
The 2014-2016 Ebola outbreaks in West Africa and the ongoing outbreaks in the
Democratic Republic of Congo are both characterized by high case fatality rates.
The death of many people due to Ebola virus disease (EVD) has instilled fear into
the members of affected communities and has led to stigmatization and changes
in the behavior of the inhabitants of such communities, which has greatly affected
the spread of the disease. In this work, we use three mathematical models
which incorporate human behavior and interventions to study the dynamics of
EVD spread, transmission, and eradication. In the first model which examines
the impact of fear (of death from EVD) and environmental transmissions on EVD
spread, we use a parameter that measures the level of fear per dead body to model
the impact of fear and a fear dependent saturating function which incorporates
both pathogens to human and human to human transmissions to capture the infection
rate. Our results suggest that the fear of death limits the spread of EVD
by making community members to change their behavior thereby limiting their
contact with infected individuals and sources of the pathogens. The second model
studies the impact of EVD survivor stigmatization on disease transmission by using
a stigmatized survivor-dependent function to depict the rate at which survivors
are stigmatized in their communities. The results advocate for the organization of
educational and awareness programs, and programs to reintegrate survivors back
into their communities as control measures for disease management. In the third
model, we introduce two new compartments within the hospital compartment for
habitable and inhabitable beds, to model the effects of changes in the number of
habitable and unhabitable beds on the disease dynamics. Our results suggest that
a timely increase in the number of habitable beds through bed vacation processes
and the refurbishment of unhabitable beds can help curb the spread of the disease.
The results obtained in this thesis can be used to pivot EVD management and control.
Key words: Ebola virus disease, human behaviour, fear, stigmatization, hospitalization.