Abstract
D.Ing.
For executive management to guide an enterprise, strategic planning is essential. Using Enterprise Wide Risk Management (EWRM) as an input to Scenario Analysis (SA) for Strategic
Planning (SP) allows for improved accuracy over conventional methods. This would allow
for greater realism from the executive management perspective of possible outcomes in scenario modelling by providing a solid quantitative base founded on real operational information.
Emerging regulatory legislation for corporates also require quantitative risk management in
the enterprise for reporting and rating purposes, providing a wealth of information for scenario
modelling purposes. From the outset this research focuses on the industrial sectors in South
Africa, though the model could be applied to any industry sector internationally. The core of
any industrial enterprise is made up of the Operational Support Systems (OSS) that provide
the hardware and software infrastructure to operate the business. The smooth operation and
efficient handling of any unforeseen events in the OSS impacts the very survival of the en-
terprise in a highly competitive environment. The development of an OSS risk management
(RM) strategy to provide an efficient and effective way to recognise, classify and mitigate the
risks involved in OSS is thus crucial to any enterprise that seeks to remain competitive. To
implement this RM strategy and provide information regarding likely loss events, a quantitative
risk model is required to simulate different scenarios. This research investigates the development of a Sector Wide Risk Model (SWRM) to simulate stress events in an industry sector
and their impact on sector members.