Abstract
This paper compares the systemic cost of risk between the two heavy haul lines and general freight routes on
the South African rail network to determine operational resilience of heavy haul rail systems in a growing
export market. The Railway Safety Regulator in South Africa requires permitted railway operators to report
extrinsic incidents and intrinsic occurrences in a standardised manner, as well as direct costs aggregated for
combined categories. Data recorded and categorized since 2009 according to national standards provides
insight into route-specific systemic cost of risk when related to the gross domestic product railed over time.
The 33,079 intrinsic occurrences and extrinsic incidents were geospatially superimposed to the nearest
station on an existing audited rail freight flow model for South Africa. Reported railway occurrence cost was
allocated on an average basis to the nearest station associated with an incident or occurrence. A leading
business intelligence tool was used to query the combined database. Data was visualized using maps,
animations and graphs. Results suggest that over time the heavy haul remote western iron ore export line
exhibits superior route-specific systemic cost of risk when compared to the more populous coal export line
over difficult terrain in the east, and the various general freight lines. Evidence suggests that, in terms of
systemic cost of risk, the heavy haul model is resilient in a growing market. The paper concludes that socioeconomic
factors, topography, and railway operational considerations contribute to systemic cost of risk.